摘要
日美同盟是日本国家安全战略的一个重要内涵与客观外部战略情境。日本国家安全战略转型与日美同盟的关联性不仅关涉战略理性考量,而且取决于日本对美依恋情感的演变,即由基于战略认知的特质性依恋与战略情境交互形成的状态性依恋所决定,具有情境敏感性。立足新古典现实主义的理论路径,以战略情境作为自变量,尝试引入依恋关系这一中介变量,能够构建出解释日本国家安全战略演化的情感动力机制。自冷战以来,日本对外部战略情境的判断从在“消极机遇”与“积极机遇”间调整转向“消极脆弱”,推动了日本对美依恋类型从在“安全信任”与“疏离抵触”间摇摆演变为“焦虑示好”,进而塑造了战后日本国家安全战略在自主追随与攻防平衡间的基本取向。过度反应心理、错误情境知觉干扰了日本对外部战略情境的判断,导致其战略取向难以实现兼顾自主的追随路线。打造“威慑力”“影响力”“塑造力”并重的国家安全战略,是日本困于大国地缘竞合情境、囿于对美依恋情感顺从的折中策略,经营“亲而可不随”的灵活自主空间是其战略关切的核心议程。
The Japan-U.S.alliance constitutes both a core component of Japan's national security strategy and an objective external strategic context. The transformation of Japan's national security strategy is shaped not only by rational strategic considerations but also by the evolution of Japan's affective attachment to the United States.This attachment evolves from a trait-based dependence rooted in strategic cognition to a state-based dependence shaped through interaction with changing strategic circumstances,highlighting its context-sensitive nature.Grounded in the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism,taking the strategic environment as the independent variable and introducing the concept of attachment as a mediating variable enables the construction of an emotional motivational mechanism to explain the evolution of Japan's national security strategy.Since the end of the Cold War,Japan's perception of the external strategic environment has shifted from alternating between a " passive opportunity" and an " active opportunity" to a perception of " fragile adversity".This shift has driven a transformation in Japan's attachment style toward the U.S.,from oscillating between "security-based trust" and " detached resistance" to a state of " anxious appeasement".As a result,postwar Japan's national security strategy has been characterized by a fundamental orientation of autonomous alignment and defense-offense balancing.Psychological tendencies of overreaction and misperceptions of strategic circumstances have further distorted Japan's assessment of the external environment,undermining its ability to maintain a balanced approach to autonomous alignment. Japan 's pursuit of a national security strategy emphasizing deterrence,influence,and shaping power reflects a compromise strategy,trapped between the realities of great power geopolitical competition and the emotional subordination resulting from its attachment to the U.S..At the heart of Japan's strategic agenda lies the effort to carve out a flexible space for " closeness without submission",seeking autonomy within the constraints of its deeply rooted alliance dependence.
出处
《日本学刊》
2025年第2期30-52,145,146,148,149,共27页
Japanese Studies
