摘要
本文采用上市公司年报测度了企业供应链风险,并基于2012—2022年上市公司数据,以2018年留抵退税政策作为准自然实验,采用双重差分模型,系统评估了增值税留抵退税政策实施对企业供应链风险的影响、作用机制以及传递效应。研究发现:留抵退税政策显著促进了企业供应链风险的降低,与未受政策影响的企业相比,政策的实施使得试点企业供应链风险显著下降;并且对供应链外部风险与内部风险,政策效应均存在。这一结论在运用双重机器学习模型、排除外部冲击、变更估计样本与变量计算方法等一系列检验后依然保持稳健。影响机制层面,本文发现留抵退税政策主要通过缓解企业流动性约束、提高固定资产投资与促进人力资本升级,以及提升企业创新水平进而促进了供应链风险的降低。此外,留抵退税政策对供应链风险的抑制作用对处于成长和成熟期、融资约束程度较高以及供应链集中度较低的企业更为明显。最后,留抵退税政策存在单向供应链溢出效应,受政策影响的上游供应商能够显著降低下游客户的供应链风险,但下游客户对上游供应商并无明显的溢出效应。总体而言,本文研究证实了留抵退税政策对于降低企业供应链风险的重要作用,这对如何通过政策赋能提升供应链韧性具有一定的参考价值。
This paper measures corporate supply chain risks using the annual reports of listed companies and,based on data from 2012 to 2022,uses the 2018 input VAT credit refund policy as a quasi-natural experiment. A diference-in-diferences model is employed to systematically evaluate the impact of the VAT input credit refund policy on corporate supply chain risks,its mechanisms,and spillover effects. The study finds that the VAT credit refund policy signifcantly reduces supply chain risk for enterprises. Compared with frms not afected by the policy,pilot enterprises that received the policy intervention experienced a signifcant reduction in supply chain risk. The policy efect is observed in both external and internal supply chain risks. This conclusion remains robust after a series of checks,including the use of double machine learning models,controlling for external shocks,and varying estimation samples and variable computation methods.In terms of the mechanism,the study fnds that the VAT credit refund policy primarily reduces supply chain risk by alleviating corporate liquidity constraints,increasing fxed asset investment,promoting human capital upgrading,and enhancing innovation levels. Additionally,the policy's efect on supply chain risk is more pronounced in frms that are in the growth and maturity stages,face higher financing constraints,and have lower supply chain concentration. Lastly,the VAT credit refund policy exhibits a one-way supply chain spillover efect: upstream suppliers that are afected by the policy can signifcantly reduce the supply chain risk of downstream customers,but there is no signifcant spillover effect from downstream customers to upstream suppliers. Overall,the study confirms the important role of the VAT credit refund policy in reducing corporate supply chain risk,ofering valuable insights into how policy interventions can enhance supply chain resilience.
作者
梁贺
季标
包群
田明羽
Liang He;Ji Biao;Bao Qun;Tian Mingyu
出处
《财政研究》
北大核心
2025年第1期58-78,共21页
Public Finance Research
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“超大规模国内市场优势与国内外市场联动的理论机制与实现路径研究”(23ZDA054)
国家社科基金重点项目“依托国内优势、国内外市场协同发展与贸易强国建设”(21AZD024)
天津社科基金青年项目“内外联动投资提升本土企业供应链韧性的机制与路径研究”(TJLJQN24-004)。
关键词
增值税留抵退税
供应链风险
供应链溢出
VAT Retention and Refund
Supply Chain Risk
Supply Chain Spillover
