摘要
基于2006—2022年269个地级及以上城市层面数据,从理论与实证双重视角探讨了地方经济增长目标对工业碳排放效率的作用及机理。研究发现:(1)地方经济增长目标对工业碳排放效率具有显著的倒U形影响;(2)机制检验结果表明,适度的经济增长目标将激励城市创新,提升第二产业占比和加强环境规制进而改善工业碳排放效率,过高的经济增长目标将阻碍城市创新,降低第二产业占比和放松环境规制进而抑制工业碳排放效率;(3)进一步分析发现,对于人均生产总值较高、创新能力较强、市场化程度较低的城市,中西部城市、综合实力较弱的城市以及处于长三角城市群中的城市,二者之间的倒U形关系更为明显,“新常态”后及经济增长目标未能如期完成时,二者之间的倒U形曲线变得更加陡峭。研究为加速实现“双碳”目标与推动经济高质量发展提供了经验证据。
Based on data from 269 prefecture-level cities and above from 2006 to 2022,this paper discusses the role and mechanism of local economic growth goals on industrial carbon emission efficiency from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.The study demonstrates the following findings:(1)Local economic growth targets have a significant inverted U-shaped impact on industrial carbon emission efficiency;(2)The mechanism test indicates that moderate economic growth targets can stimulate urban innovation,increase the proportion of the secondary industry and strengthen environmental regulations to improve industrial carbon emission efficiency.In contrast,excessive economic growth targets can impede urban innovation,reduce the proportion of the secondary industry,and relax environmental regulations to suppress industrial carbon emission efficiency;(3)Further analysis indicates that the inverted U-shaped relationship is more pronounced in cities with higher per capita gross regional product,stronger innovation capacity and lower marketization levels.It is also more evident in cities in the central and western regions,cities with weaker comprehensive strength,and cities within the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.After the“new normal”economic phase and when economic growth targets are not achieved as planned,the inverted U-shaped curve becomes steeper.The study provides empirical evidence for accelerating the achievement of China’s“dual carbon”goal and promoting high-quality economic development.
作者
夏帅
于翔
王煜昊
XIA Shuai;YU Xiang;WANG Yuhao(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;School of Business,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;School of Digital Economics and Management,Nanjing University,Suzhou 215163,China)
出处
《经济经纬》
北大核心
2025年第2期80-94,共15页
Economic Survey
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD129)
国家社会科学基金重点项目(22AJY004)
天津市哲学社会科学规划项目(TJYJ20-003)。
关键词
地方经济增长目标
城市创新
产业结构
环境规制
工业碳排放效率
Local Economic Growth Targets
Urban Innovation
Industrial Structure
Environmental Regulations
Industrial Carbon Emission Efficiency
