摘要
以中国部分劳动密集型制造业向东南亚国家转移为标志的新一轮产业外迁引发了广泛关注,但已有研究多为对外迁现状的定性分析,且关注的行业以纺织服装等产业链末端环节为主,对行业未来外迁趋势和石化产业链的分析不够深入。鉴于此,构建产业转移评估体系,尝试量化分析石化及其下游产业未来转移趋势。研究结果显示,本轮产业转移中,中国纺织服装服饰业、纺织业、橡胶和塑料制品业、家具制造业、电子设备制造业易外迁,石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、化学原料和化学制品制造业、汽车制造业难外迁。纺织行业及其所处的对二甲苯产业链将是受本轮产业转移冲击较大的石化产业链,需重点关注,做好风险防范。
A new round of industrial transfer,marked by the relocation of some labor-intensive manufacturing industries from China to Southeast Asian countries,has aroused widespread attention.However,most existing studies are qualitative analyses of the current relocation situation.And the industries of concern are mainly end links of the industry chain,such as textile and garment industries,and the analysis of the trend of industry transfer and the petrochemical industry chain has not been in-depth so far.In view of this,this paper constructs an industrial transfer evaluation system and endeavors to quantitatively analyze the future transfer trend of the petrochemical industry and its downstream industries.The result of the study shows that in the current round of industrial transfer,China's textile and garment industry,rubber and plastic products industry,furniture manufacturing industry,and electronic equipment manufacturing are easy to relocate,while petroleum,coal,and other fuel processing industry,chemical materials and products manufacturing industry,and automobile manufacturing industry are hard to relocate.The textile industry and its paraxylene industry chain could be the petrochemical industry chain impacted severely by the current round of industrial transfer,which needs serious attention and prevention.
作者
程诺
刘潇潇
聂浩宇
李超
王德亮
CHENG Nuo;LIU Xiaoxiao;NIE Haoyu;LI Chao;WANG Deliang(SINOPEC Economics&Development Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100029,China)
关键词
产业转移
东南亚国家
对二甲苯
产业链
石化行业
industrial transfers
Southeast Asian countries
paraxylene
industry chains
petrochemical industries
