摘要
在多类型极端天气频发叠加新能源占比持续提升的背景下,为保障未来电力系统在极端天气下的安全稳定运行,提出了一种面向多类型极端天气的新型电力系统规划方案全场景风险评估方法。首先,从历史信息筛选出造成实际区域电网风险的潜在极端天气,分析气象因素与电网状态映射关系,并提出基于极端气象条件的电网风险场景识别方法;其次,针对极端天气及其影响下的源荷功率和设备故障等要素,建立风险场景多重不确定性模型,生成风险场景及其概率;同时,考虑未来电网特性及极端天气影响,从充裕性、灵活性及安全稳定性维度,提出了一套面向规划方案的针对性风险后果指标体系,并针对未来实际电网风险评估面临运行状态难以准确高效模拟的问题,提出基于国家电网规划仿真分析计算平台的实用化电网后果计算方法;最后,对2025年中国东北规划电网开展评估,并分析其在高温无风和暴风雪天气下的高风险地区及风险类别。
In the context of frequent occurrence of multiple types of extreme weather and the continuous increase in the proportion of renewable energy,to ensure the safe and stable operation of the future power system under extreme weather conditions,a fullscenario risk assessment method of new power system planning scheme for multiple types of extreme weather is proposed.Firstly,potential extreme weather that causes actual regional power grid risks is screened from historical information,and the mapping relationship between meteorological factors and power grid status is analyzed to propose a power grid risk scenario recognition method based on extreme meteorological conditions.Secondly,a multi-uncertainty model for risk scenarios is established for factors such as source and load power,equipment failures under extreme weather conditions,risk scenarios and their probabilities are generated.At the same time,considering the characteristics of the future power grid and the impact of extreme weather,a targeted risk consequence index system for planning schemes has been proposed from the perspectives of adequacy,flexibility and safety stability.In response to the problem of inaccurate and efficient simulation of the operation status of the actual power grid risk assessment in the future,a practical power grid consequence calculation method based on the state grid planning simulation analysis and calculation platform has been proposed.Finally,the planned power grid in Northeast China in 2025 has been evaluated,and its high-risk areas and risk categories under high-temperature and windless,and blizzard weather conditions have been analyzed.
作者
刘文霞
刘佳怡
万海洋
王雅姝
张帅
冯伟
杨天蒙
LIU Wenxia;LIU Jiayi;WAN Haiyang;WANG Yashu;ZHANG Shuai;FENG Wei;YANG Tianmeng(School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Northeast Branch of State Grid Corporation of China,Shenyang 110170,China)
出处
《电力系统自动化》
北大核心
2025年第4期65-78,共14页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家电网有限公司东北分部科技项目(SGDB0000DJJS2310060)。
关键词
风险评估
新型电力系统
极端天气
全场景
气象因素
多重不确定性
规划
risk assessment
new power system
weather extreme
full-scenario
meteorological factor
multiple uncertainties
planning
