摘要
为了提高区域碳达峰的峰值和出现时间的预测精度,以宁夏地区为研究对象,在利用IPCC碳排放系数法核算地区的历史碳排放量,创新性地使用动态时间规整算法(DTW)准确识别碳排放的主要影响因素的基础上,联合运用主成分分析法和可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT),构建了基于STIRPAT模型的区域碳排放量预测模型;然后,引入基于因素重要程度评估的情景分析法,结合重要因素的未来可能变化趋势,设计和生成反映不同的社会经济发展状况、技术水平和政策实施效果的情景,最终计算得到不同情景模式下的区域未来碳排放量,准确预估了区域的碳达峰峰值和出现时间,为后续区域碳达峰峰值综合控制策略和对策建议的制定和实施提供了有益的参考依据.
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of peak value and its occurrence time of regional carbon emission,in this study,selecting the Ningxia region as the research target,the IPCC carbon emission factor method was firstly used to calculate historical carbon emission amounts of this region.Secondly,the DTW(Dynamic Time Warping)algorithm was innovatively utilized to identify main influence factors of carbon emission.Then,the PCA(Principal Component Analysis)method and STIRPAT(Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology)model were jointly used for establishiing a regional carbon emission prediction model.Next,the scenario analysis method based on the importance evaluation of influence factors was introduced to design and generate the scenarios reflecting various socio-economic development conditions,technological levels and policy implementation effects by combining the possible future trend of critical factors.Finally,the regional carbon emission amounts under different scenarios were determined,where regional peak carbon value and its occurrence time were estimated accurately,providing the useful reference basis for the formulation and implementation of subsequent regional peak carbon control strategy and countermeasure proposal.
作者
王雪亭
郑非凡
许野
李薇
WANG Xue-ting;ZHENG Fei-fan;XU Ye;LI Wei(Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《中国环境科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第S1期347-356,共10页
China Environmental Science
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(62073134)
