摘要
湟水流域是黄河上游最大支流,受气候变化和水利水保措施的显著影响,湟水流域水沙情势变化出现新特征,评估其变化及驱动因素对流域水资源管理和规划具有重要意义。采用Pettitt检验法和MannKendall检验法分析水沙的基本特征,基于河流因子法定量评估水沙情势变化,使用累积量斜率变化率比较方法(SCRAQ)定量区分气候变化和人类活动对水沙情势变化的贡献。结果表明,1956-2020年,湟水年径流呈不显著下降趋势,年泥沙呈显著下降趋势(p<0.05);以突变点将径流泥沙分为基础期P1(1956-1980年)、变化期P2(1981-2004年)和P3(2005-2020年);P1至P2、P2至P3,湟水径流情势改变评估河流影响因子分别为0.9、1.1,为低度改变;泥沙情势改变评估河流影响因子分别为0.4、0.3,为高度改变;从P1到P2再到P3,气候变化对湟水径流的贡献从13.8%增加到了39.0%,气候变化对湟水泥沙的贡献从2.1%增加到了7.2%,说明在P3时期降水增多主导径流贡献率变化,对于泥沙变化的贡献有限。研究结果可为湟水水利未来水保措施提供参考。
The Huangshui River Basin is the largest tributary of the upper reaches of the Yellow River.It exhibits new characteristics in terms of streamflow and sediment conditions due to the significant impacts of climate change and water conservancy measures.Assessing these changes and their driving factors is of great significance for water resource management and planning in basin.The Pettitt test and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the basic characteristics of streamflow and sediment.The river impact(RI)method was employed to quantitatively evaluate the changes in stre-amflow and sediment conditions.The method of slope change ratio of accumulative quantity was used to differentiate the contributions of climate change and human activities to the changes in streamflow and sediment conditions.The results are as follows:From 1956 to 2020,there was no significant downward trend in annual runoff,but there was a significant decrease in annual sediment load(p<0.05).Based on the detection of sundden change points,the period was divided in-to three stages:the baseline period P1(1956-1980),the transitional period P2(1981-2004),and period P3(2005-2020).The evaluation of changes in streamflow conditions during P1-P2 and P2-P3 showed RI values of 0.9 and 1.1,indicating a slight change.The evaluation of changes in sediment conditions showed RI values of 0.4 and 0.3,indicating a signifi-cant change.From P1 to P2 and then to P3,the contribution of climate change to streamflow in the Huangshui River in-creased from 13.8% to 39.0%,while the contribution to sediment increased from 2.1% to 7.2%.This suggests that in-creased precipitation during P3 played a dominant role in the changes in streamflow,but had limited contribution to sedi-ment changes.The research results can provide reference for water conservancy measures in the Huangshui River Basin.
作者
马俊清
胡锴星
方祖堃
MA Jun-qing;HU Kai-xing;FANG Zu-kun(Haidong City Pingan District Water Bureau,Haidong 810500,China;Upper Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of the Yellow River Water Conservancy Commission,Lanzhou 730030,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2025年第1期43-46,共4页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
气候变化
水沙情势
河流影响因子
湟水流域
climate change
streamflow and sediment regime
river impact factor
Huangshui basin
