摘要
为探究机场飞行区风险发生机制及风险传播特性,增强机场飞行区安全管控能力,采用复杂网络理论,依据风险致因间的因果链序关系,构建多层异质网络风险传播模型。采用多层次因果图(AcciMap)理论分析机场飞行区运行风险传播的致因链;基于风险致因特征构建3层异质风险传播网络并根据网络特征设计概率-触发传播模型、容量-阻抗传播模型、容量-负荷传播模型;利用复杂网络理论设计风险传播评价指标,对风险网络传播特征进行分析。结果表明:多层风险网络中节点风险传播能力与节点度弱相关,节点风险灵敏指数可提升风险节点排序准确性;对风险灵敏度指数排序前15%的节点进行风险控制,可有效降低风险扩散近32%;网络风险传播结构存在高连通和松散状态,对风险扩散指数排序前15%的节点进行控制,可以有效降低网络结构鲁棒性指数使风险网络结构由高连通进入到松散状态;所建模型可有效识别风险扩散过程并进行精准控制,以提升机场飞行区风险控制水平。
A multi-layer heterogeneous network risk propagation model was built using complex network theory and the causal chain relationship between risk factors in order to better characterize the characteristics of operational risks' propagation in flight areas and improve the safety management capabilities of airport flight areas.The accident analysis mapping(AcciMap) theory was employed to analyze the causal chain of risk propagation.A three-layer heterogeneous risk propagation network was built.Evaluation indicators were designed using complex network theory to analyze the characteristics of risk network propagation.The results demonstrate that the node's risk propagation capability exhibits a weak correlation with the node degree,and the node's risk sensitivity index can enhance the accuracy of risk node ranking.Implementing risk control measures on the top 15% of nodes ranked by the risk sensitivity index can effectively reduce risk diffusion by approximately 32%.It is possible to reduce the robustness index of the network structure and move the risk network structure from a highly connected state to a loose state by controlling the top 15% of nodes ranked by the risk diffusion index.The built model enables the identification and precise control of risk diffusion processes,thereby enhancing the level of risk control in airport flight areas.
作者
吴维
吴泽萱
王兴隆
WU Wei;WU Zexuan;WANG Xinglong(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《北京航空航天大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第7期2225-2236,共12页
Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
基金
天津市应用基础多元投入基金面上项目(21JCYBJC00700)
中央高校基本科研业务费项目中国民航大学专项(3122025098)。
关键词
航空运输
机场运行
复杂网络
风险传播
控制策略
air transportation
airport operations
complex network
risk propagation
control strategy
