摘要
为探究WRF模式对郑州市五区降雨过程的模拟能力,比选出一套符合郑州市五区大多数降雨的WRF模拟参数,采用WRF模式中的Thompson、WSM6及Lin三种微物理参数方案分别模拟了郑州市五区的9场降雨持续时间为1 h,重现期以3~5年为主的降雨事件,并对9场不同降雨历时、重现期的降雨事件在Thompson方案下进行模拟,通过水文预报中常用的相对误差、相关系数、均方根误差、平均误差进行评价。结果表明,Thompson方案在总降雨量、过程量及降雨趋势方面相较WSM6、Lin方案稳定性更好;对于不同降雨历时、重现期的降雨,Thompson方案模拟结果的相关系数都较高,但均方根误差略微偏大,平均误差正负参半,数值也相对偏小。研究结果对郑州市降雨预报方案的选择具有一定参考价值。
In order to explore the ability of WRF mode to simulate the rainfall process in the five districts of Zhengzhou City,a set of WRF simulation parameters was selected which were consistent with most rainfall in five districts of Zhengzhou City.Three microphysical parameter schemes of Thompson,WSM 6 and Lin in WRF mode were used to simulate 9 rainfall events with a duration of 1 h and 3-5 years in the recurrence period,respectively.The nine rainfall events with different rainfall duration and recurrence period were simulated under the Thompson scheme.The relative error(R_(RE)),correlation coefficient(C_(COR)),root mean squared error(R_(RMSE))and mean error(M_(ME))commonly used in hydrological forecasting were used to evaluate the schemes.The results are show that the rainfall simulation under Thompson scheme is better stable than WSM 6 and Lin schemes in terms of total rainfall,process amount and rainfall trend.For the rainfall of different rainfall duration and recurrence periods,the C_(COR) of the simulation results by Thompson scheme is high,but the R_(RMSE) is slightly larger;The M_(ME) is half positive and half negative,and the value is relatively small.The results have certain reference value for the selection of rainfall forecast scheme for Zhengzhou City.
作者
张金萍
李志伟
王茹玉
ZHANG Jin-ping;LI Zhi-wei;WANG Ru-yu(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Institute of Yellow River Ecological Protection and Regional Coordinated Development,Zhengzhou 450001,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2024年第6期1-5,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3200205)
2021年度河南省面上基金项目(212300410404)
灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2021LASW-A15)
2022年度“教授团队助力企业创新驱动发展专项”(JSZLQY2022076)
国家自然科学基金项目(52379028)。
关键词
WRF模式
降雨模拟
微物理参数
郑州市
WRF mode
rainfall simulation
microphysical parameters
Zhengzhou City
