摘要
用MM 5-V 3对江淮流域的一次暴雨过程进行数值模拟,为了消除单一的确定性预报在暴雨落区和强度方面的可信度不稳定。其中积云对流参数化方案分别采取5种不同的方案进行了计算,又对5种结果进行平均得到集合模拟结果。分析不同的模拟结果发现,对降水量的模拟,集合模拟结果更接近实况。不同的积云对流参数化方案对雨带位置的模拟效果相近。但对于β中尺度雨团的模拟具有不确定性,而不同参数化方案的集合模拟结果,无论是对雨带还是雨团的模拟都是比较成功的,这也说明集合预报可以消除物理过程的不确定性,是提高预报准确率的一条有效途径。
A case of heavy rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe valley was studied with MM5-V3. In this numerical simulation, five convective parameterization schemes were adopted. The results show similar presentation of the position of rainbands but for different simulation of meso-β rain cell. To remove the uncertainty in predicting the area and the intensity of heavy rainfall, an ensemble mean was achieved by averaging the five simulated results. The ensemble mean, which has a good simulation of both rain belts and rain cell, is most similar to the observation so far as the amount of precipitation is concerned. This indicates that the ensemble forecasting can remove the physical uncertainty and can be regarded as an efficient approach to enhance prediction.
出处
《解放军理工大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
2006年第1期73-79,共7页
Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目(2004cb418300)
关键词
暴雨过程
数值模拟
集合预报
heavy rainfall
numerical simulation
ensemble forecasting
