摘要
【目的】模拟不同气候情景下高寒山地珍稀动物适宜生境变化,对探究天然林资源保护工程前后土地利用变化对高寒山地珍稀动物的影响具有重要的实践意义。【方法】选取对雪豹Panthera uncia分布可能存在影响的22个环境变量,分别利用2000和2020年土地利用数据代表天然林资源保护工程实施前后土地利用类型变化的情况,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)模拟雪豹适生区的分布变化,并对未来RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5等2种气候情景下2050年的雪豹潜在适宜生境进行模拟。【结果】天然林资源保护工程实施之前,雪豹在青海省的高适生区面积为11.79万km^(2),中适生区面积为11.96万km^(2),低适生区面积为22.96万km^(2),总适宜性分布面积为46.71万km^(2)(占研究区域面积的64.7%)。天然林资源保护工程实施之后,雪豹的高、中、低适生区分别为11.78、11.77、24.14万km^(2),总适生区面积共增加到了47.69万km^(2)(占研究区域面积的66.0%)。未来场景模拟结果显示:至2050年,青海省雪豹适宜生境总体上呈现出收缩聚拢的趋势,其高、中、低适宜生境面积相较于2020年都出现了一定程度的下降。其中,适宜生境在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下分别减少0.14和0.72万km^(2),而中高适宜生境面积减少0.32和0.49万km^(2)。【结论】相比2000年,2020年土地利用发生了变化,雪豹适宜生境略有增加,天然林资源保护工程并未导致雪豹适宜生境的明显扩张。气候变暖可能对雪豹的适宜生境产生负面影响。建议加强雪豹活动监测,提前制定气候变化下雪豹等濒危野生动物的保护策略。
[Objective]The aim of this study is to simulate suitable habitat changes of snow leopards(Panthera uncia)under land use change before and after Natural Forest Protection Project(NFPP)and different climate scenarios,which has practical significance for rare animal conservation in alpine mountains.[Method]Total 22 environmental variables that might have an impact on the distribution of snow leopards were selected and the land use data in 2000 and 2020 were used to represent the changes in land use type before and after the implementation of NFPP.The maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)was used to simulate the distribution change of suitable habitats for snow leopards,and the potential suitable habitats for snow leopards in 2050 under two climate scenarios,namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5,were simulated.[Result]Before the implementation of NFPP,the high suitable area of snow leopards in Qinghai Province was 117900 km^(2),the medium suitable area was 119600 km^(2),and the low suitable area was 229600 km^(2).The total suitability distribution area was 467100 km^(2)(accounting for 64.7%of the study area).After the implementation of NFPP,the high,medium,and low suitable areas of snow leopards were 117800,117700 and 241400 km^(2),respectively,and the total suitable area increased to 476900 km^(2)(accounting for 66.0%of the study area).The simulation results of future scenarios showed that by 2050,the suitable habitat of snow leopards in Qinghai Province would generally show a trend of contraction and agglomeration,with a certain degree of decrease in the areas of high,medium and low suitable habitats compared with 2020.Among them,the medium suitable habitats would decrease by 1400 and 7200 km^(2) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios,respectively,while the high and medium suitable habitat area would decrease by 3200 and 4900 km^(2),respectively.[Conclusion]The land use changed from 2000 to 2020,with a slight increase in the suitable habitat for snow leopards,inferring that NFPP has not led to the expansion of sirable habitat for snow leopards.A future warming climate will have a negative impact on the suitable habitat for snow leopards.Therefore,forestry management departments should strengthen monitoring of snow leopard activities and develop conservation strategies in advance for endangered wildlife such as snow leopards under climate change.
作者
王祥福
李愿会
王维枫
孙杰杰
王倩
董文婷
王荣女
杨娅琪
WANG Xiangfu;LI Yuanhui;WANG Weifeng;SUN Jiejie;WANG Qian;DONG Wenting;WANG Rongnü;YANG Yaqi(Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Ecological Hydrology and Disaster Prevention in Arid Regions,Northwest Surveying and Planning Institute,National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Xi’an 710048,Shaanxi,China;Co-innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,College of Ecology and Environment,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《浙江农林大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期526-534,共9页
Journal of Zhejiang A&F University
基金
国家林业和草原局西北调查规划院2021年科技创新项目(XBJ-KJCX-2021-16)。
