摘要
以桃林口水库流域为对象,基于斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型与生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估(InVEST)模型,利用2009—2024年4期土地覆盖数据,系统分析土地覆盖类型和生境质量演变特征,并在多种情景下对2029年研究区土地覆盖和生境质量变化进行预测。结果表明:研究区土地覆盖结构稳定,森林与耕地占主导地位;全区生境质量多年均值大于0.7,15年间累计提升0.033,高值区集中分布于库区周边森林区域,低值区则分布在城镇扩张带。PLUS和InVEST模型预测显示:在生态保护情景下,森林用地转入面积达25.41 km2,生境质量将进一步升至0.782;在城镇发展情景下,不透水面激增13.29 km2,生境质量降至0.707。
Taking the Taolinkou Reservoir basin as the research object,this study systematically analyzes the evolution characteristics of land cover types and habitat quality using four phases of land cover data from 2009 to 2024,based on the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model.It also predicts the changes in land cover and habitat quality of the study area in 2029 under multiple scenarios.The results show that:The land cover structure of the study area is stable,with forests and cultivated land dominating.The multi-year average habitat quality of the entire area is greater than 0.7,with a cumulative increase of 0.033 over 15 years.High-value areas of habitat quality are concentrated in the forested regions around the reservoir area,while low-value areas are distributed in the urban expansion zones.Predictions from the PLUS and InVEST models indicate that:Under the ecological protection scenario,the converted area of forest land will reach 25.41 km2,and the habitat quality will further rise to 0.782.Under the urban development scenario,the impervious surface will surge by 13.29 km2,and the habitat quality will drop to 0.707.
作者
王雷
王佳
吴东
时若松
边宇
韦锐
WANG Lei;WANG Jia;WU Dong;SHI Ruosong;BIAN Yu;WEI Rui(Hebei Water Conservancy Construction Management Co.,Ltd.,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050000,China;School of Geographical Sciences and Environment,Shijiazhuang University,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050035,China;Hebei Xinzheng Environmental Technology Co.,Ltd.,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050000,China)
出处
《石家庄学院学报》
2025年第6期61-68,共8页
Journal of Shijiazhuang University
基金
河北省省级水利科技计划项目“桃林口水库拟建二期工程前后库区生境质量时空演变与预测”(2025-20)
河北省污染源智能监控技术创新中心课题(SJ2023098)。
