摘要
棉花在我国国民经济中占有重要地位,是关系我国国计民生的重要战略物资和棉纺织工业原料。自2009年以来,我国棉花种植面积持续下降,但由于棉花机械化程度的提高棉花采收进度有所加快,因此我国棉花产量整体保持稳定。新疆是我国最大的棉花生产地,棉花机械提升效果显著,未来随着棉花机械化工作持续推进,新疆棉花产量将继续增长。通过对新疆棉花市场现状及发展进行对比分析,结合2000-2022年的新疆棉花产量与种植面积数据构建VAR模型,对新疆棉花产量进行一个短期预测。结果显示:2023年新疆棉花产量将持续增加,但是增幅不会太大。
Cotton plays an important role in China's national economy and is an important strategic material and raw material for the cotton textile industry,which is related to the national economy and people's livelihood.Since 2009,the cotton planting area in China has continued to decline,but due to the improvement of cotton mechanization,the cotton harvesting progress has accelerated,so the overall cotton production in China has remained stable.Xinjiang is the largest cotton production area in China,and the improvement effect of cotton machinery is significant.In the future,with the continuous promotion of cotton mechanization work,Xinjiang's cotton production will continue to increase.By comparing and analyzing the current situation and development of Xinjiang's cotton market,and combining the data of Xinjiang's cotton production and planting area from 2000 to 2022,a VAR model is constructed to make a short-term prediction of Xinjiang's cotton production.The results show that the cotton production in Xinjiang will continue to increase before 2023,but the growth rate will not be too large.In order to maintain a stable increase in domestic cotton production,timely measures should be taken to respond.
作者
刘亚娇
LIU Yajiao(Department of Big Data Applications and Economics(Guiyang School of Big Data Finance),Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang,Guizhou,550000,China)
出处
《高原农业》
2024年第3期342-349,共8页
Journal of Plateau Agriculture
