摘要
研究目的:分析中国县域在过去20年中,城镇人口和城镇土地在总量与增量上的空间配置差异,探讨形成不同人地匹配关系类型的县域影响因素及作用机制,为推进人地协调发展的县域城镇化提供决策支持。研究方法:采用空间匹配评价模型,分析中国1 871个县域的城镇人口和城镇土地,在2000年、2010年和2020年的总量以及2000—2010年、2010—2020年的增量匹配关系与动态变化,进而将全国县域划分为不同类型,利用多分类逻辑回归模型探究形成各类型县域的主要影响因素及其作用机理。研究结果:(1)2000—2020年中国县域城镇人口和城镇土地在总量与增量上的空间匹配度等级均呈现下降趋势。南方地区城镇人口比例高于北方,而北方地区城镇土地比例高于南方。总体上全国县域城镇土地扩张速度快于城镇人口增长速度。(2)根据城镇人口和城镇土地的匹配关系可以将全国县域划分为8个类型。南方地区的县域以人口增长为主,而北方地区的县域以土地增长为主。(3)经济水平、产业结构、公共服务设施水平和农业发展水平等因素对不同类型县域的形成具有显著影响。公共服务设施水平和农业发展水平主要推动了以人口增长为主的县域类型形成,而经济水平和产业结构则主要促进形成了以土地增长为主的县域类型。研究结论:2000—2020年全国县域总体上表现出南方“人多地少”,北方“人少地多”的局面。以人口增长为主的县域需加强公共服务资源均衡,同时改进落户政策并优化经济和产业结构。而以土地增长为主的县域需提高公共服务设施条件,并推进农业生产数字化、特色化。
The purposes of this study are to analyze the spatial configuration disparities in total quantity and incremental urban population and urban land in counties of China over the past 20 years,and to explore the influencing factors and mechanisms shaping different types of county-level human-land matching relationships,to provide the decision support for promoting coordinated development of human-land interactions in county-level urbanization.The research methods are as follows.The spatial matching evaluation model is used to analyze the total amount of urban population and urban land in 1871 counties in China in 2000,2010 and 2020,as well as the incremental matching relationship and dynamic changes from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020,and then the counties are divided into different types,and the multi-classification logistic regression model is used to explore the main influencing factors and their mechanisms that shape various types of counties.The results show that:1)from 2000 to 2020,both the total and incremental spatial matching degrees of urban population and urban land in counties of China show a declining trend.Southern regions have a higher urban population proportion than northern regions,while northern regions have a higher urban land proportion.Overall,the expansion rate of urban land in county-level areas is faster than the growth rate of urban population.2)Based on the matching relationships between urban population and urban land,the counties of China are classified into eight categories.Counties in southern regions primarily exhibit population growth,while those in northern regions mainly show land growth.3)Factors such as economic level,industrial structure,level of public service facilities,and agricultural development significantly influence the formation of different types of counties.The levels of public service facilities and agricultural development mainly drive the formation of county types with population growth,while the economic level and industrial structure mainly promote the formation of county types with land growth.In conclusion,from 2000 to 2020,counties nationwide generally manifested a situation where southern regions faced“more people,less land”and northern regions faced“fewer people,more land.”Counties with population growth as the main trend need to enhance the balance of public service resources,improve settlement policies,and optimize economic and industrial structures.Counties with land growth as the main trend need to improve public service facility conditions and promote the digitization and specialization of agricultural production.
作者
任英健
杨建新
张重
赵梓伯
王警若
王英格
龚健
REN Yingjian;YANG Jianxin;ZHANG Zhong;ZHAO Zibo;WANG Jingruo;WANG Yingge;GONG Jian(School of Public Administration,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;Key Laboratory of Rule of Law Research,Ministry of Natural Resources,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《中国土地科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第12期92-103,共12页
China Land Science
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(42101275)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(CUGL170408,CUGGG-2021)
湖北省自科基金面上项目(ZRMS2023000450)。
关键词
县域城镇化
人地匹配关系
土地城镇化
人口城镇化
空间匹配评价模型
多分类逻辑回归
county urbanization
human-land matching relationship
land urbanization
population urbanization
spatial matching evaluation model
multi-classification logistic regression
