摘要
近年来,黄河三角洲地区人口增加,经济社会发展,但区域水资源短缺问题突出。进行“三生”用水配置有利于缓解水资源矛盾,推动地区高质量发展。本文基于系统动力学模型,综合考虑人口、经济、生态等影响因子,对黄河三角洲“三生”用水配置进行模拟仿真,在敏感性分析的基础上,设置了三种配置情景:(1)基准情景根据研究区过去十年的实际情况以及未来预期发展趋势进行设定;(2)生态优先情景以每年完成一定面积,至2030年完成100万亩湿地的生态修复,并且保持生活用水量不受影响为目标;(3)节水情景通过增加节水灌溉面积、提高中水回用率等多种节水措施来提高水资源利用效率。最后提出研究区“三生”用水配置的建议。结果表明:(1)在基准情景下,2020—2030年水资源供需比不断缩小,2030年生产用水量约为生活用水量和生态用水量之和的4倍;(2)在生态优先情景下,生态用水量平均每年增加0.31亿m^(3),每年约52.1%的生产用水无法得到满足,2030年水资源供需比达到0.69∶1,供水能力严重不足;(3)在节水情景下,供水系统比基准情景能多提供共3.6亿m^(3)水量,但仍不能弥补生态建设需水缺口。在实施节水政策的基础上,仍需增加黄河分水和其他跨流域调水才能实现黄河三角洲“三生”用水协调和高质量发展。
In recent years,the population in Yellow River Delta has increased and the economy and society have developed,but the regional water resources shortage is of prominence.The allocation of“production-living-ecological”water using is beneficial for alleviating water resource conflicts and promoting high-quality development in the region.By the system dynamics model,this paper comprehensively considers the influencing factors such as population,economy,ecology and so on,and simulates the“production-living-ecological”water using system in the Yellow River Delta.On the basis of sensitivity analysis,three configuration scenarios are set,which are:①the benchmark scenario is set according to the actual situation of the study area in the past 10 years and the expected development trend in the future;②The ecological priority scenario aims to complete the ecological restoration of 1 million mu of wetland by 2030 and keep the living water consumption unchanged.③The water-saving scenario is set to improve the efficiency of water resource utilization through various water-saving measures such as increasing the area of water-saving irrigation and improving the reuse rate of reclaimed water.Finally,suggestions for the optimal allocation of“production-living-ecological”water using in the study area are put forward.The results show that:①under the benchmark scenario,the supply-demand ratio of water resources is shrinking from 2020 to 2030,and that the production water consumption in 2030 is about 4 times the sum of domestic water consumption and ecological water consumption.②Under the ecological priority scenario,the average annual increase of ecological water consumption is 31 million m^(3),about 52.1%of the annual production water can not be met,and the supply-demand ratio of water resources will reach 0.69∶1 in 2030.③Under the water-saving scenario,the water supply system can provide a total of 360 million m^(3) of excess water than the benchmark scenario,but it still can not make up for the water demand gap of ecological construction.Based on implementing the water-saving policy,it is still necessary to increase the water diversion of the Yellow River and other inter basin water transfers in order to realize the coordinated and high-quality development of“production-living-ecological”water using in the Yellow River Delta.
作者
王佳炜
韩美
孔祥伦
孔凡彪
魏帆
孙金欣
WANG Jiawei;HAN Mei;KONG Xianglun;KONG Fanbiao;WEI Fan;SUN Jinxin(College of Geography and Environment,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250014,China)
出处
《西安理工大学学报》
CAS
北大核心
2023年第3期369-378,共10页
Journal of Xi'an University of Technology
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BGL026)。
关键词
系统动力学
“三生”用水
水资源配置
黄河三角洲
system dynamics
“production-living-ecological”water using
water resource allocation
Yellow River Delta
