摘要
水资源可持续利用是科学发展的重要基础,"跨越式"发展愿景下的新疆面临水资源约束的严峻挑战!以2004—2013年水资源统计资料为基础,运用BP神经网络模型模拟分析了2个情景下(情景Ⅰ:趋势外推,情景Ⅱ:跨越式发展)2014—2020年新疆的水资源承载力.结果表明:1)水资源承载力综合评价指数呈上升趋势,但情景Ⅰ中水资源开发利用率过高,情景Ⅱ中农业用水比重大、效率低,成为新疆水资源可持续利用的瓶颈;2)以提高水资源的生态效益为目的,提出了情景Ⅲ:可持续利用情景,可逐步解决供需矛盾.关键在于改变传统粗放的用水方式,在提升水资源的利用效率的基础上,优化水资源利用的空间结构以缓和水资源对社会经济发展的瓶颈作用;3)BP神经网络模型与情景分析结合评价新疆水资源承载力是一种可行的尝试.
Sustainable utilization of water resources is an important foundation of scientific development.Xinjiang faces severe challenges of water resources restraint under great-leap-forward development.Statistical data of water resources from 2004—2013were used to quantitatively simulate WRCC in Xinjiang from 2014—2020with BP neural network and scenario analysis.ScenarioⅠis trend extrapolation and scenarioⅡis greatleap-forward development.Comprehensive evaluation index of WRCC from 2014—2020was found to show an upward trend.However,excessive exploitation and utilization of water resources in scenarioⅠ,low efficiency and large proportion of agricultural water have showed a bottleneck effect for sustainable utilization of water resources.ScenarioⅢsustainable utilization is put forward to improve ecological effect of water resources,and could gradually solve contradictions between supply and demand.Extensive water use habits should be changed to improve water use efficiency and to optimize structure of water resource utilization.Combining BP with scenario analysis to evaluate WRCC of Xinjiang is a feasible method.
出处
《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第2期216-222,共7页
Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2014BAC15B04)
关键词
水资源承载力
BP神经网络模型
情景分析
新疆
water resources carrying capacity
BP neural network model
scenario analysis
Xinjiang
