摘要
目的研究1990-2019年中国归因于吸烟的膀胱癌疾病负担及趋势变化情况,为膀胱癌防控决策提供参考。方法基于全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)2019研究,通过分析死亡率、伤残调整寿命年(disability adjusted life year,DALY)及其变化趋势来评价中国1990-2019年归因于吸烟的膀胱癌疾病负担现状,并与全球及不同社会人口学指数(socio-demographic index,SDI)地区进行对比。分析归因死亡率的年龄时期队列效应,并结合人口数据预测未来归因于吸烟的膀胱癌死亡率和DALY率。结果1990-2019年中国归因于吸烟的膀胱癌死亡数从1990年的7766人上升到2019年的18800人,归因DALY从17.78万人年上升到39.31万人年,标化后的死亡率从1.13/10万下降到1.02/10万,标化DALY率从21.82/10万下降到19.71/10万,男性归因疾病负担高于女性。2019年中国归因于膀胱癌的疾病负担低于高SDI地区和高-中SDI地区,高于全球、中SDI地区、低-中SDI地区和低SDI地区。APC模型显示,1990-2019年中国归因于吸烟的膀胱癌死亡率在30~89岁年龄组随着年龄的增加而增加,在90~94年龄组随着年龄的增加而下降。时期效应随着年代的增加而降低,队列效应随着出生年份的推移而降低。预测结果显示,2020-2025年中国归因于吸烟的膀胱癌死亡率和DALY率将持续上升。结论中国归因于吸烟的膀胱癌疾病负担较重,应重点关注老年男性膀胱癌防治问题。
Objective Analyze the burden of disease and the trends of bladder cancer attributable to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019,and provide reference for bladder cancer prevention and control decision-making.Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 study,mortality rate,disability adjusted life year(DALY)were used to analyze the burden and the changing trends of bladder cancer attributable to smoking from 1990-2019 and the differences between China,the global and different socio-demographic index(SDI)regions were compared.The effects of age,period and cohort on the bladder cancer burden attributable to smoking were assessed with an age-cohort-effect(APC)model.Future bladder cancer mortality and DALY rates attributable to smoking were predicted based on the population profile.Results From 1990 to 2019,the number of bladder cancer deaths attributable to smoking in China increased from 7766 in 1990 to 18800 in 2019,the attributable DALY increased from 177800 to 393100 person-years,and the age-standardized mortality decreased from 1.13/100000 to 1.02/100000,the age-standardized DALY decreased from 21.82/100000 to 19.71/100000.The attributable disease burden of men was higher than that of women.The disease burden attributable to bladder cancer in China in 2019 was lower than that of high-SDI regions and high-moderate SDI regions,but higher than that of global,middle-SDI regions,low-moderate SDI regions,and low-SDI regions.The APC model showed that bladder cancer mortality attributable to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019 increased with age in the 30~89 age group and decreased with age in the 90~94 age group.Period effects decreased with years,and cohort effects decreased with birth year.The forecast results showed that the bladder cancer mortality and DALY rates attributable to smoking in China will continue to rise from 2020 to 2025.Conclusion The disease burden of bladder cancer attributable to smoking is heavy in China.Attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of bladder cancer in older men.
作者
陈雯
刘艳
宇传华
Chen Wen;Liu Yan;Yu Chuanhua(School of Public Health,Wuhan University(430071),Wuhan)
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期642-645,650,共5页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
国家自然科学基金(82173626)
湖北省卫健委2019年度第三批联合基金预防专项重大项目(WJ2019H304)。
