摘要
森林火灾严重威胁林木资源的健康发展和生态系统平衡,对森林火灾风险开展评估研究具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。针对现有评估研究中指标体系构建、评价方法选取方面的不足,根据灾害系统理论及指标选取的代表性、可操作性等原则构建我国省域森林火灾风险评价体系,采用VHSD-EM法确定指标权重,并通过对时间赋权的方法构造森林火灾风险评估指数,实现对我国森林火灾风险趋势的基本把握。研究结果表明:构建的森林火灾风险评价体系能够较好地反映我国省域森林火灾的风险特征,指标内容完整;VHSD-EM法的采用解决了跨年度风险评价研究中的不足,稳健性良好,适用性强;考察期内,我国森林火灾风险总体波幅较小,森林防灭火工作的挑战依然严峻;相较而言,内蒙古、四川、山西、广西、陕西等省区面临的森林火灾风险更为突出,应着重加强对历史灾情严重地区森林火灾风险的防控管理,并注重提升管理人员的技术水平和防火投入力度。
Forest fire seriously threatens the healthy development of forest resources and ecosystem balance.The research on forest fire risk assessment has important theoretical value and practical significance.The construction of evaluation index system and the selection of evaluation methods in the existing evaluation research have some deficiencies.According to the disaster system theory and the representative and operable principles of index selection,this paper constructs the provincial forest fire risk evaluation system of China.Then we use the VHSD-EM method to determine the index weight,and construct the forest fire risk assessment index through the method of time weighting.The results show that the forest fire risk assessment system constructed in this paper can better reflect the risk characteristics of provincial forest fire in China,and the index content is complete.The adoption of VHSD-EM method has a good robustness and applicability which overcomes the weakness in the research of cross year risk assessment.During the investigation period,the risk of forest fire in China showed a stable trend,and the challenge of forest fire prevention and extinguishing is still severe.In contrast,Inner Mongolia,Sichuan,Shanxi,Guangxi and Shaanxi face more prominent forest fire risks.We should strengthen the prevention management of forest fire risks in areas which with serious historical disasters,and pay attention to the improvement of the technical level of managers and the investment in fire prevention.
作者
王亚男
王洪庆
王新建
WANG Yanan;WANG Hongqing;WANG Xinjian(Department of Basic Courses,China Fire and Rescue Institute,Beijing 102202,China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期94-103,共10页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
中国消防救援学院科研项目(XFKYB202211)
中国消防救援学院教改项目(2023SZH07)。
