摘要
地方政府的财政刺激政策积累了大量的隐性债务,释放被隐性债务占用的信贷资源,有助于缓解企业融资约束与提振地方经济。本文借助2018年6月央行扩大中期借贷便利(MLF)担保品范围的准自然实验,采用双重差分法识别抵押品扩容政策对地方经济增长的影响效应与作用机制。研究发现:将符合规定的城投债纳入抵押品范围能够显著促进地方的经济增长,该结论不受变量设定和干扰性因素等影响,并通过了平行趋势与安慰剂检验。进一步研究表明,抵押品扩容通过释放隐性债务占用的信贷资源,能够显著提高地方金融机构的信贷投放能力,促进企业的投融资,提高企业劳动力雇佣数量和员工薪酬,并有助于扩大内需,改善居民的就业、收入和消费。本文的启示在于,抵押品框架下的新型货币政策可以通过地方隐性债务渠道,促进货币政策与财政政策的协调配合,发挥促进经济增长与稳定就业的作用。
In recent years,local governments have utilized various channels to finance their activities,particularly through Local Government Financing Vehicles(LCFVs),in order to stimulate economic growth through debt-financed investments.However,this approach has led to the accumulation of a substantial amount of implicit debt for these local governments,creating significant repayment pressure and liquidity risks.Simultaneously,due to the notable regional segmentation in China's credit market,local financial institutions are influenced by local governments when allocating credit resources.As a result,these institutions tend to hold a large number of municipal investment bonds,with city commercial banks gradually replacing policy banks as the primary source of loans for LGFVs.Although local government debt-financed investments through LGFVs can stimulate aggregate demand and alleviate downward pressure on the local economy,the occupation of credit resources by implicit local government debt can crowd out investment activities of local enterprises,thereby reducing the efficiency of credit resource allocation by local financial institutions and impeding economic growth momentum.Therefore,it is of significant relevance to examine whether monetary policy tools can release the credit resources occupied by municipal investment bonds,enhance the lending capacity of local financial institutions,alleviate financing constraints for enterprises,boost domestic demand,stabilize employment,and provide valuable insights into the formulation of monetary policy under the current economic situation.This article utilizes the quasi-natural experiment of the expansion of the collateral range for the Medium-term Lending Facility(MLF)by the People's Bank of China on June 1,2018.From the perspective of the implicit debt burden of local governments,this study employs a difference-in-differences methodology to identify the policy effects and mechanisms of the implementation of the new monetary policy under the collateral framework on the local economy.The research findings indicate that the expansion of the MLF collateral range by the central bank significantly promotes the growth of per capita GDP in cities with high implicit debt burdens.In terms of mechanisms,the policy implementation not only stimulates credit extension by local financial institutions but also enhances long-term bank borrowing and corporate investment and financing for firms in the treatment group cities.This leads to increased labor force employment and employee compensation,thereby driving economic growth.Further research reveals that the policy implementation also significantly promotes employment among residents,primarily driving the increase in labor force employment in the secondary sector.This,in turn,increases household income and consumption,providing a more sustainable and stable impetus for further economic growth.This article provides insights into the implementation of China's new monetary policy.Firstly,including AA and AA+corporate bonds as collateral for Medium-term Lending Facility(MLF)can help alleviate the liquidity constraints faced by local financial institutions,increase bank credit issuance,and promote local economic growth.Therefore,to maximize the effectiveness of the new monetary policy based on the collateral framework,it is necessary to further enhance the liquidity of local financial institutions.Regarding local government bonds,under controllable risks,if the central bank can moderately raise the mortgage rate for special bonds or provide better policy support for commercial banks to use special bonds as collateral for financing,it would not only ensure the necessary funding for infrastructure projects but also reduce the financing costs of local governments.Additionally,it can also reduce the issuance of municipal investment bonds used for refinancing and liquidity replenishment through the"substitution effect",thereby providing essential funds for major strategic projects,curbing the growth of hidden debt,and promoting high-quality economic development.Secondly,China's new monetary policy based on the collateral framework is not a temporary relief measure but a regular mode of implementing monetary policy regulation under the new normal.Therefore,it is worth considering further integrating the enhancement of liquidity for implicit local government debt with monetary policy to reduce economic fluctuations during the process of addressing local debt.
作者
康书隆
董剑峰
KANG Shu-long;DONG Jian-feng(School of Finance,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian,Liaoning,116025,China)
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期44-61,共18页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
关键词
隐性债务
抵押品扩容
新型货币政策
经济增长
implicit debt
collateral expansion
new monetary policy
economic growth
