摘要
目的:探讨老年骨科康复病人发生医院感染的影响因素,并构建风险预测模型。方法:选择某三级甲等综合医院2018年1月—2018年12月住院的1358例老年骨科康复病人作为研究对象,分析老年骨科康复病人发生医院感染的影响因素,在此基础上利用R 3.6.1软件绘制老年骨科康复病人发生医院感染风险的列线图模型,并对模型进行验证。结果:多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示Barthel评分、住院天数、年龄是老年骨科康复病人发生医院感染的独立影响因素(P<0.05),绘制的老年骨科康复病人医院感染风险列线图模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.914,区分度良好,C⁃index为91.4%、Brier为0.037,具有较好一致性和校准度,其准确性为97.8%,灵敏度为81.0%,特异度为98.7%。结论:本研究构建的医院感染风险预测模型具有良好的区分度和较好的校准度,能有效预测老年骨科康复病人医院感染的发生。
Objective:risk prediction model.Methods To explore influencing factors of nosocomial infections in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients and construct a:A total of 1358 elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients were selected as subjects,who were hospitalized in a tertiary grade A general hospital from January,2018 to December,2018.Influencing factors of nosocomial infection in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients was analyzed.And on this basis,a nomogram model of risk of nosocomial infection in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients was drawn by R 3.6.1 software.Finally,the model was verified.Results:Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that Barthel score,hospitalization days,and age were independent influencing factors of nosocomial infections in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients(P<0.05).The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the Nomogram model of nosocomial infections in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients was 0.914,with good discrimination,C⁃index was 91.4%,Brier was 0.037,with good consistency and calibration.And its accuracy was 97.8%,its sensitivity was 81.0%,and its specificity was 98.7%.Conclusions:The risk prediction model of nosocomial infections in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients constructed in this study has good discrimination and good calibration.It can effectively predict the occurrence of nosocomial infections in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients.
作者
陈娟
赵志芳
CHEN Juan;ZHAO Zhifang(School of Nursing,Zhejiang Chinese Medical University,Zhejiang 310053 China)
出处
《护理研究》
北大核心
2023年第10期1729-1733,共5页
Chinese Nursing Research
基金
2021年浙江省卫生健康面上项目,编号:2021KY117。
关键词
老年人
康复
医院感染
影响因素
模型构建
护理
elderly
rehabilitation
nosocomial infection
influencing factors
model construction
nursing
