摘要
采用蒙特卡洛法评估多因素影响下的无人机与民航客机的碰撞风险,从而对进入融合空域的无人机冲突解脱概率进行计算。首先建立了基于速度或者航向调整方法的无人机避撞数学模型,随后对融合空域内影响无人机与民航客机定位误差的关键因素构成与分布进行了分析,并利用蒙特卡洛法对典型冲突场景下的碰撞风险进行仿真。结果表明:航向解脱与速度解脱2种策略在一定程度上均能避免无人机与民航客机之间危险接近,在同等误差条件下,速度解脱策略造成的严重事故往往更低;民航客机定位误差对避障效果影响较大;得到了给定误差条件下,不同冲突场景允许的最小安全间隔标准,能够为未来融合空域内无人机与民航客机、电子围栏安全间隔的设置提供理论依据。
This paper uses the Monte Carlo method to evaluate collision risks between a UAV and a civil airliner under the influence of multiple factors so as to evaluate and calculate the conflict resolution probability of UAV entering the fused airspace.Firstly,a mathematical model of UAV collision avoidance based on speed or course adjustment methods is established.Then,the composition and distribution of key factors affecting the positioning errors of the UAV and the civil airliner in the fused airspace are analyzed,and the simulation of the collision risks in typical conflict scenarios are conducted using the Monte Carlo method.The results show that:Both course release and speed release strategies can avoid dangerous approaches between a UAV and a civil airliner to a certain extent,and the serious accidents caused by the latter strategy are less likely to occur under the same error conditions.The positioning error of the civil airliner has a greater impact on obstacle avoidance.The minimum safety interval criteria allowed for different conflict scenarios under a given error condition are obtained,which can be used as the theoretical basis for the future setting of safety intervals in fused airspace between a UAV and a civil airliner as well as between electronic fences.
作者
童亮
甘旭升
张宏宏
金剑勇
TONG Liang;GAN Xusheng;ZHANG Honghong;JIN Jianyong(Air Traffic Control and Navigation College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710051,China;Unit 95140 of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army,Huizhou 516000,China)
出处
《兵器装备工程学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期282-289,共8页
Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering
基金
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2022JM-412)。
关键词
安全评估
速度障碍法
冲突解脱
蒙特卡洛
safety assessment
velocity obstacle method
conflict resolution
Monte Carlo
