摘要
为了对移动通信产业主导技术标准替代进行全景式研究,系统分析技术标准替代过程中的政府作用机制,本文构建移动通信产业主导技术标准替代模型,先对3G和4G的专利数据进行拟合分析,然后仿真预测未来4G和5G技术标准替代关系下主导技术标准的形成,解析政府支持和竞争系数在主导技术标准替代过程中的协同作用,进而探析移动通信产业主导技术标准的形成机理和政府作用机制。研究发现:政府支持在移动通信产业主导技术标准替代进程中发挥着重要推动作用;在无政府支持和有政府支持条件下,竞争系数都是决定主导技术标准形成结果的关键因素;标准代际演进情境下主导技术标准存在“死亡之谷”,新技术标准一旦跨越“死亡之谷”将不可逆地替代旧技术标准。本文有助于丰富移动通信产业主导技术标准替代的政府作用机制研究,为研究者提供新视角和方法,为政府驱动移动通信产业高质量发展提供重要启示。
To conduct a panoramic study of the dominant technology standard substitution in the mobile communication industry and systematically analyze the government's role in the process of the technology standard substitution,this paper constructs a model of the technology standard substitution in the mobile communication industry.Firstly,this study conducts a fitting analysis of the patent data of 3G and 4G,then simulates and predicts the formation of the technology standards under the substitution relationship of 4G and 5G technology standards in the future.This paper also analyzes the synergy between government support and the competition coefficient in replacing the technology standard and explores the formation mechanism and government mechanism of the dominant technology standards in the mobile communication industry.The findings are as follows:Government support plays an essential role in the process of the dominant technology standard substitution in the mobile communication industry;In the absence of government support and with government support,the competition coefficient is the critical factor in determining the formation result of the dominant technology standard;In the context of intergenerational evolution of standards,there is a"Valley of Death"in the dominant technology standard.Once the new technology standards cross the"Valley of Death",they will irreversibly replace the old ones.This paper can help to enrich the research on the government's influencing mechanism in replacing the dominant technology standard in the mobile communication industry,provide researchers with new perspectives and methods,and provide essential enlightenment for the government to drive the high-quality development of the mobile communication industry.
作者
张睿涵
孙冰
Zhang Ruihan;Sun Bing(Glorious Sun School of Business and Management,Donghua University,Shanghai,200051,China;School of Economics and Management,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin,150001,China)
出处
《公共管理学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第2期92-102,171,共12页
Journal of Public Management
基金
上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2022ECK004)
上海市“科技创新行动计划”软科学研究项目(23692123400)。
关键词
主导技术标准
政府支持
产业政策
技术标准替代
移动通信产业
Dominant Technology Standard
Government Support
Industrial Policy
Technology Standard Substitution
Mobile Communication Industry
