摘要
近年来,我国臭氧(O_(3))浓度呈升高趋势,成为仅次于PM_(2.5)影响空气质量的重要因素.为掌握长三角地区蓝天保卫战实施期间O_(3)时空变化特征和人群健康影响,采用莫兰指数和冷热点空间统计方法分析了长三角地区2017~2020年210个监测站点O_(3)浓度时空特征,并利用健康风险和环境价值评价法评估了长三角区域人群O_(3)暴露水平变化的健康收益.结果表明,2017~2020年,长三角地区O_(3)年均值和暖季均值的四分位数范围(IQR)呈现从高浓度向低浓度位移的趋势.暖季和冷季O_(3)浓度均值均呈现北高南低的空间分布态势.暖季O_(3)浓度均值在长三角北部和中部腹地城市出现高浓度O_(3)集聚的特征.区域O_(3)年均暴露浓度超过160μg·m^(-3)及以上的人口比例由2017年的72.3%降低至2020年的34.8%.三省一市人口加权年均O_(3)暴露浓度总体呈现下降趋势,但长三角皖西、苏北、苏中部分城市呈现波动上升.健康效益评估结果表明,2020年相较2017年,长三角地区归因于暖季O_(3)浓度改善避免的早逝人数为3 782人(95%CI:2 050~5 511人),实现的健康经济收益为261.98亿元(95%CI:142.01~381.75亿元),与O_(3)主要前体物削减成本相比,费效比约为1∶1.67~3.23.
In recent years,the ozone(O_(3)) concentration has showed a rising trend in China,becoming second only to PM_(2.5) as an important factor affecting air quality.To grasp the spatial-temporal variations characteristics of O_(3) and the associated health impacts during the implementation of the three-year plan on defending the blue sky in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region,data collected from 210 monitoring stations in the YRD from 2017 to 2020 were analyzed using the global Moran’s index and Getis-Ord G^(*)_(i) index methods,and the associated health benefits of reduced O_(3) exposure were evaluated using the health risk and environmental value assessment methods.The results showed that during the study period,the interquartile range(IQR) of the annual average O_(3) concentration and that of the warm season both presented a declining trend.The average O_(3) concentrations in both warm and cold seasons showed a similar spatial distribution pattern,with the northern part exhibiting the higher concentrations and the southern part showing the lower concentrations.Furthermore,the O_(3) concentrations in the warm season were characterized by high O_(3) concentrations clustering in the northern and central part of the region.The proportion of the population exposure to annual average O_(3) concentration over 160 μg·m^(-3) decreased from 72.3% in 2017 to 34.8% in 2020 in the YRD.Although the population-weighted annual mean O_(3) concentration in the whole YRD region showed a downward trend,some cities in western Anhui province,northern Jiangsu province,and central Jiangsu province showed fluctuations and even an increasing trend.In terms of health benefits,there were 3 782 cases(95% CI:2 050-5 511 cases) of avoided premature deaths associated with reduced O_(3) concentrations in the warm season in 2020 compared to 2017.The total health benefit was 26 198 million yuan(95% CI:14 201-38 175 million yuan).Compared to the cost of the main O_(3) precursor emission reduction,the cost-benefits ratio was 1∶1.67 to 3.23.
作者
程育恺
戴海夏
张蕴晖
乔利平
马英歌
安静宇
黄成
CHENG Yu-kai;DAI Hai-xia;ZHANG Yun-hui;QIAO Li-ping;MA Ying-ge;AN Jing-yu;HUANG Cheng(Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety,Ministry of Education,School of Public Health,Fudan University,Shanghai 200032,China;State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Formation and Prevention of Urban Air Pollution Complex,Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences,Shanghai 200233,China)
出处
《环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期719-729,共11页
Environmental Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(81872581)
上海市生态环境局重点科研项目(2021-02,2021-14)
上海市第五轮公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划重点学科项目(GWV-10.1-XK11)。
