摘要
在国际制度研究中,组织一旦建立就保持相对较高的制度惯性是学界的传统认识。组织的功能及改革问题也是研究热点。但数据统计显示,国际组织存在一定程度的死亡率,该现象并未引发关注,也超出了传统理论所能解释的范畴。在大国“退群”现象频发、多边主义重要性受到质疑的国际背景下,考察国际组织兴衰存亡的诸多因素具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文通过对比国际难民组织(IRO)和联合国难民署(UNHCR)的不同生命历程,发现国际组织的生存意愿作为内驱力是决定组织命运的主要变量,主导国态度作为外部力量则是影响国际组织生存质量和解体速度的次要变量。大国退出通常导致组织出现财政危机和影响力下降,但组织存亡的命运和全球治理成效最终取决于组织的维生意愿及其应对危机的能力。这一研究结果其实也对近年来美国“退群”和英国“脱欧”等引发的“多边主义危机”做出了回应,更为中国推动国际组织发展和改革提供了启示。
According to neoliberal internationalism,once established,international organizations(IOs)maintain a relatively high degree of institutional inertia.However,existing statistics show that IOs die at a certain rate.Such a phenomenon has gone almost unnoticed and beyond the explanatory scope of existing theories.In an international context marked by frequent withdrawals of great powers and skepticism about the importance of multilateralism,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyse the impact of withdrawals on the survival and development of IOs.The survival will,as an internal drive,is a main variable for IOs’ survival,according to various outcomes displayed by the International Refugee Organization(IRO) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR),while the dominant power’s attitude,as an external factor,is a minor variable that affects both IOs’ survival quality and disintegration speed.The withdrawal of a major power usually results in financial crises and decline in influence of an IO.However,the final development of an IO and the effectiveness of the global governance related are ultimately determined by its survival will and its ability to deal with crises.This discovery can also respond to the current “multilateral crisis”caused by the United States’ continued withdrawal from IOs and Brexit,help with China’s endeavor to promote the reform of international organizations.
出处
《外交评论（外交学院学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第6期126-154,I0005,共30页
Foreign Affairs Review
