摘要
贫困边缘人群作为当前贫困问题转型后的新生群体和未来相对贫困人口的潜在增量,对其进行精准识别和常态监测关乎相对贫困长效治理机制建设。在相对贫困的研究视域和治理阶段,本文首先将贫困边缘人群定义为当期未发生相对贫困,但却具有贫困脆弱性的人口群组。随后,借助CFPS五期微观调查面板数据,在利用AF法和三阶段可行广义最小二乘法(FGLS)分别测度相对贫困和贫困脆弱性的基础上,识别出贫困边缘人群,进而分析其时空演进路径。最后构造Probit模型,从个人、家庭和宏观三个层面以及时空双维度探究致贫因素和防返贫机制。研究发现:家庭结构老龄化是贫困边缘家庭的主要致贫因素之一;贫困边缘人群自身人力资本的积累是减贫的内生动力;正式制度前期并未产生明显的脱贫效果,但随着脱贫攻坚战略的实施,其脱贫效果开始显现,而非正式制度始终是贫困边缘家庭分担贫困风险的主要手段之一;城乡一体化和土地城镇化建设是防止返贫致贫的重要战略举措;贫困边缘家庭的致贫因素存在时空异质性。
As the new group after the transformation of the current poverty problem and the potential incrementation of the relative poor population in the future,the accurate identification and normal monitoring of the marginal group of poverty are related to the construction of the long-term governance mechanism of relative poverty.In the research field and governance stage of relative poverty,this paper first defines the marginal group of poverty as the population that does not have relative poverty in the current period,but has poverty vulnerability.Then,with five phase micro survey data of CFPS,this paper identifies the marginal group of poverty by using the AF method and three-stage feasible generalized least squares(FGLS) to measure relative poverty and poverty vulnerability respectively.Then,the evolution path of time and space is analyzed.Finally,the Probit model is constructed to explore the poverty-causing factors and anti-poverty mechanism from the three aspects of individual,family and macro as well as the two dimensions of time and space.The results show that the aging of family structure is one of the main factors causing poverty in marginal families of poverty;the accumulation of human capital in marginal families of poverty is the endogenous driving force for poverty reduction;The formal system does not produce obvious anti-poverty effects in the early stage,but its anti-poverty effects begin to emerge with the implementation of the anti-poverty strategy,while the informal system has always been one of the main means for marginal poor households to share the risk of poverty;urban-rural integration and local urbanization construction are the main measures to prevent poverty;there is spatiotemporal heterogeneity as for the poverty factors of marginal families of poverty.
作者
于新亮
孙峥岫
上官熠文
于文广
YU Xinliang;SUN Zhengxiu;SHANG GUAN Yiwen;YU Wenguang
出处
《农业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第10期53-68,共16页
Journal of Agrotechnical Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“灾难性卫生支出风险识别、致贫路径与精准保障研究”(编号:71804090)
山东省泰山学者工程专项经费“保险风险优化控制策略研究”(编号:tsqn20161041)
山东省社会科学规划研究专项“精准扶贫视角下医养健康保障机制优化与路径选择”(编号:19CQXJ08)。
关键词
相对贫困
贫困脆弱性
贫困边缘人群
长效治理
时空演进
Relative poverty
Poverty vulnerability
The marginal group of poverty
Long-term governance
Evolution of time and space
