摘要
基于1981~2022年宁波地区梅雨资料及7个梅雨监测站逐日降水数据,运用相关、小波等方法分析了宁波入梅日、出梅日、梅期、梅雨量和梅雨强度5个梅雨特征量的时间变化特征及其相互关联。结果表明:①总体上,宁波近42年入梅和出梅越来越早,梅雨量和梅雨强度越来越多(强),而梅雨期长度变化却并不明显;②宁波各梅雨特征量均存在年际尺度周期,且不同周期分布在不同时间段上:入梅日在20世纪90年代中期到21世纪初有显著4~8年变化周期,出梅日变化周期并不明显,梅期长度、梅雨量、梅雨强度则表现出相似的4~6年20世纪80年代及2014年后的短周期;③从特征量的年际相关来看,梅期长度似乎更多由出梅日早晚来决定,而对梅雨量起决定作用的是梅期长度,梅雨强度和梅雨量反映的年际变化特征几乎一致。
Based on the data of plum rains and the daily precipitation data of seven plum rains monitoring stations in Ningbo city from 1981 to 2022,the temporal variation characteristics of five plum rains characteristics and their correlation were analyzed by using correlation and wavelet methods.The results showed that:①in general,plum rains entering and plum rains emerging became earlier and earlier.Rainfall and plum rains intensity became more and more strong,but the length of plum rains period did not change significantly in Ningbo city during the past 42 years.②Each characteristic quantity of plum rains in Ningbo city has an inter-annual scale cycle,and different cycles are distributed in different time periods.The period of plum rains onset was 4~8 years from the mid-1990s to the early 2000s,but the period of plum rains onset was not obvious.The period of plum rains onset length,rainfall and plum rains intensity showed similar short cycles of 4~6 years in the 1980s and after 2014.③From the perspective of the inter-annual correlation of characteristic quantities,the length of plum rains period seems to be more determined by the morning and evening of plum rains emergence day,while the length of plum rains period plays a decisive role in rainfall.The inter-annual variation characteristics reflected by rainfall intensity and rainfall are almost the same.
作者
辛欣
吴俊杰
王杰
赵晓彤
叶天
王健捷
Xin Xin;Wu Junjie;Wang Jie;Zhao Xiaotong;Ye Tian;Wang Jianjie(Yinzhou Meteorological Bureau,Ningbo,Zhejiang 315100,China;Ningbo Meteorological Observatory,Ningbo,Zhejiang 315000,China)
出处
《绿色科技》
2022年第20期1-7,共7页
Journal of Green Science and Technology
基金
宁波市气象科技计划项目(编号:NBQX2020010B)。
关键词
宁波地区
梅雨特征量
周期
小波分析
相关性
Ningbo City
plum rains characteristic features
cycle
wavelet analysis
correlation
