摘要
伴随着全球气候变暖的加剧,更加频繁且持续时间更长的极端高温天气严重影响了水稻生产。基于CN05.1数据集中的逐日平均气温和逐日最高气温数据,对长江中下游地区1961-2014年间的高温热害进行了评估。通过巴特沃斯(Butterworth)低通滤波平滑和Morlet复小波分析等方法对影响水稻生产的3个高温热害指标(高温持续日数、连续高温积温和危害热积温)进行了对比分析,结果表明:(1)3个指标在1980年前后呈现出先下降再上升的趋势,但是高温持续日数的上升或下降趋势更为平缓;(2)空间上,基于3种不同热害指标的结果均反映出高温热害严重的地区集中在平原区,其中,连续高温积温和危害热积温相较于高温持续日数在空间的异质性更加明显;(3)在周期分析中,3个指标在54年中均存在着25-32年、13-24年、7-12年以及3-6年的四类尺度,并且以18年、9年和5年为主周期的周期变化;(4)在强度等级划分中,无论是从标准划分的精细程度还是从划分结果的合理性上来看,基于逐日最高气温所计算的危害热积温均是3个指标中的最优选择。研究结果推荐使用危害热积温作为计算长江中下游水稻高温热害的指标。
Under the global warming,more frequent extreme heat weather with longer duration has seriously affected rice production.This paper assessed the extreme heat weather in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin during the period of 1961-2014 based on the daily average and maximum temperature data of the CN05.1 dataset.Three heat damage indicators(high temperature days,high temperature degree-days for T_(max),accumulated hot damage temperature)affecting rice production were compared and analyzed by Butterworth low-pass filter smoothing and Morlet complex wavelet analysis.The results showed that:(1)the three indexes showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing around 1980;In comparison,the trend variation in High Temperature Days is more moderate than other two indicators;(2)Spatially,the results based on the three different heat damage indicators all reflected that the areas with severe heat damage were concentrated in the plains,and the spatial heterogeneity of continuous high temperature accumulated temperature and hazardous heat accumulated temperature was more obvious than the number of days of high temperature duration.(3)In the cycle analysis,there were four scales of 25-32 years,13-24years,7-12 years and 3-6 years for the three indicators in the 54 years,and the main cycle changes were 18 years,9 years and 5 years.(4)In the intensity classification,Accumulated Hot Damage Temperature calculated based on the daily maximum temperature was regarded as the best indicator,both from the perspective of the fineness of the standard classification and the reasonableness of the classification results.It is recommended to use Accumulated Hot Damage Temperature as the index for calculating heat damage in rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
作者
朱世峰
王卫光
魏佳
ZHU Shi-feng;WANG Wei-guang;WEI Jia(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《节水灌溉》
北大核心
2022年第9期1-8,共8页
Water Saving Irrigation
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51979071)。
关键词
CN05.1
水稻
高温热害
热害强度指标
指标分析
巴特沃斯低通滤波
MORLET小波分析
长江中下游地区
CN05.1
rice
high temperature heat damage
heat damage intensity index
index analysis
Butterworth low-pass filtering
Morlet wavelet analysis
mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin
