摘要
利用江西省74个台站1961-2010年6-8月日平均气温、日最高气温和日平均相对湿度资料,采用线性回归法、多项式回归法、Morlet小波分析和数字高程模型(DEM),以探究该区水稻高温热害发生时段分布、年际变化、发生频次的时频特征和空间分布等规律。结果表明,(1)江西省水稻高温热害集中于7月中、下旬和8月上旬,其中7月13-24日为高温热害发生概率最大的时段;(2)1961-1982年高温热害总发生次数呈下降趋势,1983-2010年则呈极显著上升趋势(P<0.01),不同等级高温热害发生次数的年际变化特点与总发生次数变化相一致;(3)各等级高温热害次数呈现不同时间尺度的周期震荡,轻高温热害表现为准2a、4a、8a左右、15a、25a周期变化,中高温热害以准2a、4a、10a左右、23a的周期震荡表现显著,重高温热害则表现出准2a、6a、准13a、25a的周期震荡;(4)高温热害发生频次的高值区分布于江西东北部、赣州北部、吉泰盆地和赣抚平原,并向周边山区递减。
Based on daily average temperature, maximum temperature and mean relative humidity of 74 meteorotogcial stations in Jiangxi province during June to August from 1961 to 2010, the authors investigated the occurrence period, inter-annual variation, time -frequency variation characteristics as well as temporal-spatial patterns of rice heat injury in Jiangxi province using linear and polynomial regression method, Morlet wavelet analysis and the Digital Elevation Model （DEM）. The results showed that （ 1 ） the rice heat injury mostly oeeurred in mid July to early August with the most probability from July 13th to July 24th. （2） The annual occurrence times of rice heat injury decreased from 1961 to 1982 ,while increased significantly from 1983 to 2010（ P 〈 0. 01 ）, their temporal tendencies for different grades were consistent with in the total times. （3） The annual occurrence times for three grades of rice heat injury fluctuated in a remarkable cyclical manner, i. e. , slight grade fluctuated in the time scale of quasi-2 years,4 years, about 8,15 and 25 years,moderate grade fluctuated significantly in quasi-2 years,4 years,about 10 and 23 years periods and severe grade fluctuated in quasi-2 years,6 years,quasi-13 years and 25 years periods. （4） The high value of annual occurrence times of rice heat injury on the spatial distribution pattern was located in the northeast of Jiangxi, northern of Ganzhou, Jitai basin and Ganfu plain, and decreased to the surrounding mountains.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第4期615-622,共8页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
"农业应对气候变化"项目(1411145000994)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)项目
