摘要
为了应对全球新冠疫情蔓延和贸易战升级,各国频繁变更宏观经济政策,给各国的创新活动带来一系列不确定性影响。本文选取1996—2015年全球21个主要经济体的面板数据,以政府治理质量作为门槛变量构建门槛回归模型,分析各国经济政策不确定性对科技创新的影响。实证结果表明,一国的贪腐控制、施政有效性和政治稳定程度等6个维度的政府治理质量指标对科技创新均存在单一门槛,在提高治理质量的情况下,经济政策不确定性的降低会显著提高科技创新水平。因此,在以创新驱动引领经济高质量发展的进程中,我国可以从降低经济政策不确定性和提高政府治理质量两个方面出发,在提高国内科技创新水平的同时,从供给侧层面推动经济高质量发展。
In response to the spread of COVID-19 and the escalation of trade war,countries have frequently changed their macroeconomic policy,which brings a series of uncertain impacts on domestic innovation activities.Based on the panel data of 21 major economies from 1996 to 2015,this paper uses the quality of government governance quality as the threshold variable to construct a threshold regression model,and analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on S&T innovation.The empirical results show that there is a single threshold for S&T innovation in the six dimensions of government governance quality,such as corruption control,governance effectiveness and political stability,the reduction of economic policy uncertainty will significantly improve the level of scientific and technological innovation.Therefore,in the process of leading high-quality economic development driven by innovation,China can start from two aspects of reducing the uncertainty of economic policy and improving the quality of government governance,and at the same time raise the level of domestic S&T innovation,promoting high-quality development of economy from supply side.
作者
汪栋
荣维博
张桂阳
何光喜
Wang Dong;Rong Weibo;Zhang Guiyang;He Guangxi(School of Public Administration,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China;Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development,Beijing 100086,China)
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第9期34-42,共9页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于专利文本和复杂网络的关键共性技术识别框架、研发模式及扩散路径研究”(21CGL004)
江苏省社会科学基金青年项目“基于专利分析的江苏产业关键核心共性技术的攻关模式和扩散路径研究”(20GLC012)
江苏省高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师项目资助。
关键词
经济政策不确定性
政府治理质量
科技创新
门槛效应
Economic policy uncertainty
Quality of governance
S&T Innovation
Threshold effect
