摘要
水资源短缺是黄河流域最大的矛盾。近年来,气候变化和人类活动的加剧给黄河流域水循环过程和水资源利用带来了新的影响和挑战。基于黄河84个子流域1956—2016年的气象水文资料,回顾了黄河流域径流及其影响因素的时空变化特征,分析了径流变化的可能原因和区域差异。结果表明:(1)除黄河上游部分流域外,中下游流域径流和降水普遍减小,气温普遍上升、潜在蒸散发普遍增大。(2)黄河流域径流突变主要集中在1980—2000年,突变后年径流的概率分布向低值方向集中,年均气温和潜在蒸散发向高值方向倾斜,年降水的概率分布无显著变化。(3)下垫面变化是黄河流域径流变化的主要原因,降水变化次之,两者对上游流域的作用较为分散、不确定性大,对中游黄土高原流域的作用明显且突出;潜在蒸散发对下游流域径流变化的贡献大于对上游的,但总体贡献较小。明确黄河流域径流及其影响因素的演变趋势,把握气候变化和人类活动对河川径流的影响强度,对保障黄河水资源安全、推动流域生态保护和高质量发展有重大意义,是水文水资源研究和流域管理实践应该长期关注和深入探索的重要课题。
The shortage of water resources is the biggest contradiction in the Yellow River Basin.Recently,intensifying impacts of climate change and human activities have resulted in increasing challenges to the water cycle and water resources in the Yellow River Basin.Based on the meteorological and hydrological data of 84 sub-basins of the Yellow River Basin from 1956 to 2016,we revisited the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of streamflow and associated influencing factors and analyzed the possible causes and regional differences of these changes.The results show that a)except for some upstream basins,the streamflow and precipitation in the middle and lower reaches are widely decreased,and the temperature and potential evapotranspiration are increased;b)the abrupt changes of streamflow are mainly occurred during 1980-2000,after these changes,the probability distributions of annual streamflow are concentrated towards low values,the probability distributions of annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration are inclined towards high values,and the probability distribution of annual precipitation does not change significantly;c)landscape changes are the dominant factor of the changes in streamflow,followed by precipitation changes;the effects of these two factors in the upper watersheds are scattered and uncertain,and the effects in the middle reaches are evident and prominent;and the contribution of potential evapotranspiration to the change of streamflow in the downstream basins is larger than that of the upstream,but the overall contribution is small.Clarifying the evolution processes of streamflow and associated influencing factors,and understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities are of great significance to ensuring water security and promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.
作者
刘昌明
王恺文
王冠
田巍
于静洁
LIU Changming;WANG Kaiwen;WANG Guan;TIAN Wei;YU Jingjie(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第9期1-5,16,共6页
Yellow River
基金
中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2022M713119)。
关键词
河川径流
水资源
时空变化特征
归因分析
黄河流域
streamflow
water resources
temporal and spatial variation characteristics
attribution analysis
Yellow River Basin
