摘要
为规避地铁运营期间所面临的安全风险,基于韧性理论内涵建立地铁运营安全韧性概念模型,从影响地铁运营的人员因素、机械设备因素、环境因素和管理因素4个方面进行安全韧性的评价。首先,用实验室决策分析法(DEMATEL)确定关键事故致因因素;然后,采用解释结构模型(ISM)揭示指标间的相互关系,建立地铁运营安全韧性评价指标ISM;最后,通过网络分析法(ANP)计算指标权重,采用Fuzzy方法进行模糊综合评价指标评价得出较为客观的韧性评价结果,并以北京地铁大兴线为例进行模型的应用。结果表明:北京地铁大兴线运营安全韧性等级整体为较高韧性,与实际情况较为相符,但环境因素韧性等级为中等,抵御外界侵扰和防范能力较差,针对环境因素以及人员、机械设备、管理因素采取系列措施可以使地铁运营安全韧性有效提升。
In order to avoid safety risks during subway operation,a conceptual model of subway operation safety resilience was established based on resilience theory,and assessment was conducted from four aspects,including individuals,mechanical equipment,environment and management,all of which had an impact on the operation.Firstly,DEMATEL was used to determine key accident causative factors.Then,relationship between indicators was revealed by ISM,and the ISM of resilience evaluation index was established.Finally,indicator weights were calculated by adopting ANP,relatively objective evaluation results were obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index system,and the model was applied in the case of Beijing metro Daxing line.The results show that resilience level of Daxing line is relatively high,which is consistent with actual situation,but that of its environmental factors is medium,indicating its poorer capability to prevent and control external intrusion and disasters.Making efforts in aspects of environmental factors,personnel,mechanical equipment and management can help improve subway operation safety resilience.
作者
黄亚江
李书全
李益锌
郑涵
HUANG Yajiang;LI Shuquan;LI Yixin;ZHENG Han(School of Management Science and Engineering,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China;School of Economics and Management,Tianjin Renai College,Tianjin 301600,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期171-177,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(71571130)。
