摘要
为加快绿色交通发展与促进新能源汽车市场推广,引入前景理论与演化博弈论耦合,构建新能源汽车推广政策三方演化博弈模型,根据模型的复制动态方程分析政府、汽车企业、消费者的策略选择演化及其影响因素,并通过Matlab软件进行数值仿真实验。研究结果表明,政府、汽车企业及消费者的决策行为会受到另外两者的决策影响;现金补贴政策能够促进汽车企业及消费者选择新能源汽车,但补贴过低达不到预期效果;部分限制燃油汽车政策能够增加消费者使用燃油汽车感知成本,同时增加新基建的投入能够提高使用新能源汽车感知收益,有助于策略组合朝理想状态演化。
In order to speed up the development of green transportation and promote the market promotion of new energy vehicles, the prospect theory is introduced, and coupled with evolutionary game theory, a tripartite evolutionary game model of new energy vehicle promotion policy is constructed. According to the replication dynamic equation of the model, the strategy choice evolution and its influencing factors of the government, vehicle enterprises and consumers are analyzed, and numerical simulation experiments are carried out through the MATLAB software. The research results show that: the decision-making behavior of the government, vehicle enterprises and consumers will be affected by the other two decisions;the cash subsidy policy can promote vehicle enterprises and consumers to choose new energy vehicles, but the subsidy is too low to achieve the expected effect;some policies restricting fuel vehicles can increase consumers’ perceived cost of using fuel vehicles, while increasing investment in new infrastructure can improve the perceived benefits of using new energy vehicles, which helps the strategy portfolio evolve towards an ideal state.
作者
许杰
陈富坚
马刘听
王静雅
王智
Xu Jie;Chen Fujian;Ma Liuting;Wang Jingya;Wang Zhi(Zhejiang University Urban-rural Planning&Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310030,China;School of Architecture and Transportation Engineering,Guilin University of Electronic Technology,Guilin 541004,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第11期66-72,共7页
Science and Technology Management Research
关键词
新能源汽车
前景理论
演化博弈
决策行为分析
仿真分析
new energy vehicle
prospect theory
evolutionary game
decision-making behavior analysis
simulation analysis
