摘要
水电开发在东南亚是一个容易引发社会分歧、政治争端的议题,尽管区域水电保持蓬勃发展态势、构成电力主要来源,但其开发进程仍遭遇诸多阻力。基于水电固有的政治属性,引入“政策体系”的研究视角,将水电开发决策视为一个政策体系的运作,体系中不同行为体的立场、行动与互动构成了水电开发的影响因素。东南亚水电开发的积极因素有能源安全与转型的现实压力、各国开展电力贸易的经济诉求、国际层面行为体的推动、民众对水电效益的认同;消极因素包括政府在投资便利性上的低效治理、区域国家对湄公河开发的日益敏感、非政府组织因环境社会影响的反对和域外大国的干扰。在可预见的未来,水电仍是东南亚能源投资和运营的重点,但各国政府的开发立场正在变得更加复杂、多变。中国应重视相关政治风险,变“反应型治理”为“能动型治理”,倡导绿色水电开发,挖掘合作潜力。
Hydropower development in Southeast Asia is a topic prone to social disagreements and political disputes.Although regional hydropower maintains a vigorous development trend and constitutes the main source of electricity,its development still encounters outstanding obstacles and risks.Based on the inherent political attributes of hydropower,this paper introduces the perspective of“policy system”,and regards hydropower development decision-making as a kind of operation of this policy system.The positions,actions and interactions of different actors in the system constitute some major factors of hydropower development.The positive factors of hydropower development in Southeast Asia include the realistic pressure of energy security and transformation,the economic demands of various countries based on power trade,the push of international actors,and the public recognition of the benefits;while the negative factors consist of the government’s inefficient governance in terms of investment convenience,the increasing sensitivity of regional countries to the development of the Mekong River,the opposition of NGOs and the interference of major powers outside the region.Hydropower is still the focus of energy investment and operation in Southeast Asia in the foreseeable future,but the development stance of governments of various countries is becoming more complex and volatile.China should pay attention to political risks,move from“reactive governance”to“active governance”,advocate green hydropower development,and excavate potentials for cooperation.
作者
张锐
ZHANG Rui(Economic and Technical Institute,Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization,Beijing 100031)
出处
《南洋问题研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期39-52,共14页
Southeast Asian Affairs
基金
国家社科基金重点项目“深化稳定周边国家关系打造周边命运共同体研究”(22AZD107)。
关键词
东南亚
水电
政策体系
湄公河
地缘政治
Southeast Asia
hydropower
policy system
Mekong River
geopolitics
