摘要
本文从理论和实证两个维度论证养老保险基金财政支出优化和可持续性,通过构建养老保险基金增长模型,运用固定效应模型和工具变量法实证得出养老保险基金财政补贴的最优规模,有助于实现养老保险基金的可持续性。结果表明,当税率小于养老保险基金补贴支出贡献率时,政府加大对养老保险基金支出有利于促进养老保险基金的可持续性;反之则不利于其可持续性。实证分析进一步表明,目前中国养老保险基金的财政支出水平尚未达最优规模,在人口老龄化快速发展阶段,政府可以适度加大对养老保险基金的财政补贴力度,但是随着财政支出规模与最优规模的接近,政府需要适当控制对养老保险基金的财政补贴规模。
In this paper,both optimal fiscal expenditure and sustainability of the pension funds are discussed from both theoretical and empirical dimensions.The optimal size of the fiscal subsidies for pension funds is empirically derived from constructing a model of growth of pension funds as well as using the fixed-effects model and the instrumental variables method,which helps to achieve the sustainability of the pension funds.The results show that,when the tax rate is less than the contribution rate of pension fund subsidy expenditure,the increasing expenditure of the government on the pension funds is conducive to promoting the sustainability of the pension funds;conversely,it is detrimental to its sustainability.The empirical analysis further suggests that the current level of fiscal expenditure on pension funds in China has not yet reached the optimal scale,and that the government can moderately increase the financial subsidies to pension funds during the stage of rapid population aging.However,as the scale of fiscal expenditure approaches the optimal scale,the government needs to appropriately control the scale of financial subsidies to pension funds.
出处
《宏观经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期121-134,158,共15页
Macroeconomics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“农村失能老人家庭照料的社会支持研究”(19CSH073)
山东省社会科学规划研究项目“社会性别视角下农村养老问题研究”(19CSHJ10)
山东省自然科学基金青年项目“健康老龄化背景下山东省老年家庭照料经济价值评估和补贴规模测算研究”(ZR2021QG017)的资助。
关键词
养老保险基金
财政补贴
财政支出优化
可持续性
Pension funds
Financial subsidies
Optimization of fiscal expenditure
Sustainability
