摘要
打造周边命运共同体是中国对外开放的重要任务之一,而东南亚国家是中国重要的贸易伙伴。基于区域协同发展视角,选取中国与东南亚国家2009—2019年宏观经济数据,运用协同化指数及联立方程模型研究中国与东南亚国家经济周期协同性、影响因素及传导机制,以此反映经济命运共同体的内在联系、演变特征及发展驱动力,为进一步推动中国与东南亚及沿线国家共同发展与繁荣提出对策建议。研究结果表明:中国与东南亚国家经济周期协同性呈现阶段分区特征,且“一带一路”倡议的提出对不同国家经济周期协同性的影响具有差异性。此外,各主要变量对经济周期协同性具有不同的重要性,按影响程度排序依次为双边贸易、营商环境、金融一体化、产业相似及对外投资,其中金融一体化为负向作用。未来,中国可从倡议落实、贸易往来、政策互通与区域合作等四方面与东南亚国家进一步沟通,共同促进国家间经济周期协同,实现中国与东南亚国家经济增长双赢局面。
Building a community with a shared future around China is one of the important tasks of China’s opening-up.Southeast Asian countries are China’s important trading partners.Based on the perspective of regional coordinated development,the macroeconomic data of China and Southeast Asian countries from 2009 to 2019 is selected,and the synergy index and simultaneous equation model are used to study the synergy,influencing factors and transmission mechanism of the economic cycle between China and Southeast Asian countries,so as to reflect the community of economic destiny.The internal connection,evolution characteristics and development driving force of China,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions for further promoting the common development and prosperity of China,Southeast Asia and countries along the route.The research results show that the economic cycle synergy between China and Southeast Asian countries presents the characteristics of stage divisions,and there is a relatively obvious structural inflection point,and the proposal of the“Belt and Road”initiative has different effects on the economic cycle synergy of different countries.The economic cycle synergy of eight Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Myanmar is significantly positively correlated,and only a few countries have a negative correlation with China’s economic cycle synergy.not fully represented.In addition,the main variables have different importance to the synergy of the economic cycle.The order of influence is bilateral trade,business environment,financial integration,industrial similarity and foreign investment,of which financial integration has a negative effect.Although the positive role of the“Belt and Road”initiative has gradually emerged,the current effect of the initiative is still relatively limited.In the future,China can further communicate with Southeast Asian countries in four aspects:initiative implementation,trade exchanges,policy exchange and regional cooperation;Continue to implement the“Belt and Road”initiative,and implement macro-control measures based on the situation;Build an industrial trade integration zone to promote industrial integration,to form an inter-country dual-circulation industrial trade area;Improve the quality and quantity of investment and financing,strengthen currency liquidity,and establish an inter-country investment and financing cooperation system;Improve the level of financial openness,enhance the coordinated economic growth among countries,and accelerate the inter-country financial system.The integration process promotes the coordination of economic cycles among countries,and achieves a win-win situation for economic growth between China and Southeast Asian countries.
作者
朱健齐
孙宾
温展杰
林煜恩
ZHU Jian-qi;SUN Bin;WEN Zhan-jie;LIN Yu-en(Business School,Foshan University,Foshan 528000,China;School of Internet Finance and Information Engineering,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510521,China;Business School,Jilin University,Changchun 130000,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期33-46,共14页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“‘一带一路’倡议下粤港澳大湾区与东南亚协同发展模式研究”(GD20SQ25)
广东省社会科学研究基地创新与经济转型升级研究中心资助。
关键词
“一带一路”
经济周期
协同化指数
传导机制
影响效应
the Belt and Road Initiative
business cycle
CM Index
transmission mechanism
influence effect
