摘要
城市开通地铁不仅会提升交通便利度、改善城市结构,而且会给城市产业和经济带来质的影响。但是各个城市开通地铁究竟对城市GDP的影响方向如何,大小如何,还没有统一认识。因此文章把城市开通地铁作为一个自然实验,以中国284个2003—2015年地级市数据为研究样本,采用合成控制法分别研究了12个开通地铁的城市对经济的影响效应。研究结果表明:南京、成都、重庆、苏州、昆明、宁波、武汉、杭州、西安和哈尔滨等10个城市开通地铁对人均GDP造成正向影响,沈阳和佛山开通地铁对人均GDP造成负向影响,并且南京的正向影响最大,佛山的负向影响最大。有效性和敏感性检验均表明文章结果的稳健性。
The opening of the subway in the city will not only enhance the convenience of transportation,improve the urban structure,but also have a qualitative impact on the city ’s industry and economy.However,there is still no unified understanding of the direction and size of the impact of subway opening in various cities on the city’s GDP.Therefore,this paper takes the city’s opening of the subway as a natural experiment.Based on the data of 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2015,the synthetic control method is used to study the effects of the opening of 12 metros on the economy.The results show that the opening of subways in 10 cities including Nanjing,Chengdu,Chongqing,Suzhou,Kunming,Ningbo,Wuhan,Hangzhou,Xi’an and Harbin has a positive impact on per capita GDP,and the opening of subways in Shenyang and Foshan has a negative impact on per capita GDP,and Nanjing has the most positive impact,and Foshan has the biggest negative impact.Both validity and sensitivity tests indicate the robustness of the results.
出处
《现代城市研究》
北大核心
2022年第2期96-103,共8页
Modern Urban Research
关键词
地铁开通
城市人均GDP
影响效应
合成控制法
subway opening
urban per capita GDP
impact effect
synthetic control method
