摘要
新冠肺炎疫情冲击下如何识别、测度和提升微观企业生存韧性,是及时应对突发事件和推动经济高质量发展面临的热点问题。本文基于2018-2021年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,将疫情冲击下企业生存指标降幅与恢复增长所需时长作为企业生存韧性的观测指标,首次运用断点回归与双重差分模型相结合的方法对疫情冲击下企业生存韧性进行了定量研究。研究发现,受突发疫情影响,反映上市公司生存韧性的指标呈现出“V”型波动,疫情影响在2~3个季度之后基本得到恢复,表明企业生存具有强大韧性;从地区看,疫情冲击对湖北影响最大,部分疫情轻度地区疫情防控存在“层层加码”现象;从行业看,疫情对交通运输、仓储和邮政业、住宿和餐饮业产生的冲击最大;从产权主体看,疫情影响程度由大到小依次为外资企业、国有企业和民营企业;从规模看,疫情冲击对大型企业成长能力指标负向影响大于中型企业,而对中型企业盈利能力指标负向影响大于大型企业,疫情冲击对小型企业净利润同比增长率产生了显著促进作用,表明小型上市公司具有更大的灵活性和较强的生存韧性。本文认为,应根据企业生存韧性和企业特征选取差异化帮扶政策,科学统筹推进常态化疫情防控和经济社会发展。
How to identify, measure and improve the resilience of micro enterprises under the impact of COVID-19 is a hot issue facing timely response to emergencies and promoting high-quality economic development. Based on the data of China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares of listed companies from 2018 to 2021, taking the decline of enterprise survival indicators under the impact of the epidemic and the time required to restore growth as the observation indicators of enterprise survival resilience, and combining the RDD model with DID method, the enterprise survival resilience under the COVID-19 has carried on the quantitative research. This paper finds that the indicators reflecting profitability and growth capacity of listed companies show an immediately decline state respectively, the index reflecting the resilience of listed companies showed a V-shaped fluctuation under the impact of COVID-19, under the joint prevention and control mechanism of The State Council, the negative impact of the epidemic on the return on total assets of listed companies turned from negative to positive in the second quarter, while other indicators basically recovered three quarters later, demonstrating the responsibility of a major country to control the epidemic quickly and the strong resilience of the Chinese enterprises. The regional heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of COVID-19 on survival of listed companies in Hubei province is the most serious, and some survival indicators in mild areas are higher than those in moderate areas, which to some extent reveals the objective phenomenon that epidemic prevention and control measures in some areas are “layer upon layer”. Industry heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of COVID-19 has the greatest impact on the survival of listed companies in transportation, warehousing and postal, accommodation and catering industries, and the significant decrease in the year-on-year growth rate of operating revenue of all industries reflects the characteristics of insufficient consumer demand under the impact of COVID-19. In terms of property rights, the degree of impact of the epidemic is foreign-funded enterprises, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in descending order. The negative impact of COVID-19 on large-scale enterprises’ growth ability index is larger than the medium-sized enterprises, and the medium-sized enterprises’ profitability index is larger than large-scale enterprises, the impact of COVID-19 has a significant role in promoting small enterprises’ net profit growth rate, indicating that small listed companies have more flexibility and strong survival resilience. This paper makes contributions to the literature. Firstly, focusing on the actual living conditions of micro enterprises, the financial indicators reflecting the profitability and growth capacity of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen are taken as objects of investigation to more accurately measure the impact of COVID-19 on the actual survive resilience of micro enterprises in China. Secondly, the quantitative analysis method combining RDD method and DID method(RDD-DID) is used to explore the changes in the survival status of listed companies before and after the outbreaking of COVID-19 at the end of December 2019 for the first time, and the indicators around the end of December 2018 are used as the control group to ensure the robustness of the research conclusions.Thirdly, the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on the survival resilience of listed companies in different regions, industries, nature and sizes are comprehensively investigated.This paper has some policy implications. Firstly, it should adhere to the long-term strategy of “promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand”. Secondly, give full play to the important role of finance in supporting the survival of enterprises and prevent financial risks. Thirdly, implement targeted policies and measures to help the industry according to its characteristics;Fourthly, different supporting policies should be adopted for different types of enterprises. Finally, deal with the effective connection between short-term assistance policies and long-term “policy withdrawal”, and pay attention to cultivating the “regenerative ability” of enterprise survival.
作者
史丹
李少林
SHI Dan;LI Shao-lin(Institute of Industrial Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Science,Beijing,100006,China;Center for Industrial and Business Organization,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian,Liaoning,116025,China)
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第1期5-26,共22页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“新冠肺炎疫情大流行对中国和全球工业发展的影响及对策研究”(20STA009)
中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科(产业经济学)。
