摘要
新能源的随机性、波动性及间歇性为电力系统规划带来困扰,对风、光出力的变化规律进行合理刻画,生成典型出力场景是新能源规划的常用方法。针对具有相关性的风、光出力典型场景难以生成的问题,本文首先应用非参数核密度估计法对大量样本数据进行拟合,并进行拟合优度及精度检验,得到风、光的核密度估计表达式,然后建立多种基于Copula函数的风、光电场出力联合分布模型,判断各个模型的拟合优度,结合各个模型的Kendall与Spearman相关系数,选取最优Copula函数作为风电、光伏联合概率分布,最后采用最优Copula联合概率分布生成风、光年出力场景。算例分析表明,所得的风、光年出力场景符合其相关性,在反映某地区风光实际出力时有更高的准确性,可为电力系统可靠性分析和电网规划提供参考。
The randomness,volatility and intermittent nature of new energy resources bring troubles to power system planning.A reasonable description of how wind power and photovoltaic output behave and generating typical output scene is a common method for new energy planning.A method for generating typical scene of relevant wind power and photovoltaic output is proposed.This paper firstly fits a large number of sample data based on kernel density estimation,and performs fitting and pre-test to obtain a kernel density estimation expression of wind and photovoltaic power output.This paper builds a variety of combined distribution models of wind and photovoltaic power based on Copula functions,and then judges the fitness of each model.The Kendall and Spearman correlation coefficients of each model are considered to select the optimal Copula function as wind power,photovoltaic joint probability distribution.Finally,the annual power output of wind and photovoltaic power is generated based on the optimal Copula joint probability distribution.Case analysis shows that the simulation results of annual output of wind and photovoltaic power meets their relevance,and has higher accuracy in wind and photovoltaic power output in the reaction.There must be a certain reference value for the reliability analysis of power system and grid planning.
作者
宋宇
李涵
SONG Yu;LI Han(State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd Maintenance Branch Company,Nanjing 211102)
出处
《电气技术》
2022年第1期56-63,共8页
Electrical Engineering
关键词
核密度估计
COPULA函数
场景生成
互补特性
差异系数
kernel density estimation
Copula function
scene generation
complementary characteristics
difference coefficient
