摘要
从铁水联运规模、集疏运基础设施、运营模式、信息互联方面对"十三五"期间我国港口铁水联运发展成效、现状进行梳理,结合我国经济发展大环境、新形势,总结港口集装箱铁水联运发展趋势,采用多因素动态生成系数法对集装箱量生成机制进行分析,建立港口集装箱生成量模型对2025年港口集装箱铁水联运量进行预测,提出实现高质量发展路径。研究结果表明:新形势下,我国港口集装箱铁水联运量将持续增长,2025年预计达到1 389.83万TEU,并从加快进港铁路建设、寻求差异化发展、推进铁水联运标准化建设、加快公共信息平台建设等方面提出实现高质量发展的对策。
The development effectiveness and status of rail-water intermodal transport of China’s ports during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period were sorted out from the aspects of the volume, collection, distribution, and transportation infrastructure, operation mode, and information networking of rail-water intermodal transport. The future development trend of rail-water intermodal container transport at ports was summarized under China’s economic development environment and new situation. The multi-factor dynamic generation coefficient method was used to analyze the mechanism of container volume generation, and the rail-water intermodal container transport volume of ports in 2025 was forecasted through a newly developed model of container volume generation for ports. A path to achieve high-quality development was proposed. The research result showed that under the new situation, the rail-water intermodal container transport volume of China’s ports would continue to grow to 13.9 million TEU in 2025. Strategies to achieve highquality development were presented from the perspectives of speeding up the construction of port railways, seeking differentiated development, promoting the standardization of rail-water intermodal transport, and accelerating the construction of public information platforms.
作者
虞楠
郭紫莹
YU Nan;GUO Ziying(Logistic Engineering Technology Research Center,China Waterborne Transport Research Institute,Beijing 100088,China)
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2021年第10期35-41,共7页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
中华人民共和国全球环境基金赠款(P159883)
交通运输部水运科学研究院纵向课题(92009)。
关键词
铁水联运
港口
运量预测
发展趋势
发展对策
Rail-water Intermodal Transport
Port
Transport Volume Forecast
Development Trend
Development Strategy
