摘要
为提高建筑安全事故发生起数以及死亡人数的预测精度,探究两者间关系,本文在灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的基础上,构建建筑安全事故起数与死亡人数新维灰色预测模型,通过相对误差对预测结果进行检验,并运用该模型对2011-2022年全国建筑安全事故发生起数和死亡人数进行预测,证明两者之间具有正相关关系。结果表明:该模型对于建筑安全事故起数与死亡人数的预测精度较高,能够为建筑行业事故防控提供良好的指导意义。
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the number of construction accidents and the number of deaths,and explore the relationship between them,in this paper,a Xinwei gray prediction model for predicting the number of construction safety accidents and the number of deaths was built based on the gray GM(1,1) prediction model.The prediction results was tested through relative error.The model was used to predict the number of construction safety accidents and deaths across the country from 2011 to 2022.It is proved that there is a positive correlation between them.The results show that the model has high accuracy in predicting the number of construction safety accidents and deaths,and it can provide good guidance for the prevention and control of accidents in the construction industry.
作者
徐伟强
戴玉笠
XU Weiqiang;DAI Yuli(Beijing Decoration Service Branch of Shanghai Jinmao Construction&Decoration Co,Ltd.,Beijing 100012,China;School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining andTechnology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《安全》
2021年第8期41-44,51,共5页
Safety & Security
关键词
灰色理论
建筑安全事故
死亡人数
预测
grey theory
construction safety incidents
deaths
prediction
