摘要
近年来国际贸易环境发生重大变化,贸易保护主义、强权主义和单边主义等势力抬头,中国外部环境面临着极大的不确定性。本文以中国2001年末加入WTO为准自然实验,基于1998—2007年中国工业企业数据库样本,采用双重差分法,首次考察了贸易政策不确定性对企业专业化分工的影响。研究发现:(1)贸易政策不确定性下降对企业专业化分工水平的提升具有显著的正向作用,这一结论经过一系列稳健性及有效性检验后仍然成立。(2)贸易政策不确定性下降促进企业专业化分工可以通过降低合约成本敏感度和提升地理聚集程度两个渠道实现。(3)贸易政策不确定性下降对企业专业化分工的影响效应因所有制、地区等级、出口目的地而异。本文基于贸易政策不确定性视角,提供企业专业化分工水平变动解释的新视角,为中国企业发展和外贸政策制定提供相关的实证依据和参考材料。
In recent years, the international trade environment has undergone major changes, with the rise of trade protectionism, powerism, and unilateralism, and China’s external environment is facing great uncertainty. This paper takes China’s WTO accession at the end of 2001 as a quasi-natural experiment, based on a sample of the Chinese industrial enterprise database from 1998 to 2007, and uses the difference-in-difference method to investigate the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the specialization of firms. The study finds that:(1)The decline in trade policy uncertainty has a significant positive effect on the improvement of the level of firm specialization. This conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness and effectiveness tests.(2)Decreasing trade policy uncertainty and promotion of firm specialization can be achieved through two channels: reducing contract cost sensitivity and increasing geographic concentration.(3)The effect of the decline in trade policy uncertainty on the specialized division of labor varies with ownership, regional level, and export destination. Based on the perspective of trade policy uncertainty, this paper provides a new perspective to explain changes in the level of firm specialization, and provides relevant empirical evidence and reference materials for the development of Chinese firms and foreign trade policy formulation.
作者
郭策
张腾元
Guo Ce;Zhang Tengyuan
出处
《宏观经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期67-84,共18页
Macroeconomics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“‘一带一路’建设的福利效应估算”(项目编号:71773141)的资助。
关键词
贸易政策不确定性
专业化分工
双重差分法
异质性
Trade policy uncertainty
Specialized division of labor
Difference-in-difference method
Heterogeneity
