摘要
基于人口年龄结构变动的家庭消费升级是我国目前经济高质量发展重要微观基础。本文利用5期中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,实证分析了人口年龄结构变动对家庭消费升级的影响。研究结果表明:家庭老年抚养比的增加对家庭消费结构的改善具有显著的促进作用,而少儿抚养比的增加对家庭消费结构的改善具有显著的抑制作用,少儿抚养负担对高层次消费的挤出效应远大于老年抚养负担对高层次消费的促进效应;家庭经济条件和健康状况能够正向调节家庭老年抚养比提升的消费升级效应,同时弱化少儿抚养比提升对消费升级的抑制效应,即在经济条件和健康状况更好的家庭,老年抚养比的提升对家庭消费升级的促进效应愈发明显,而少儿抚养比的提升对家庭消费升级的挤出效应则不明显;从人口年龄结构变动对城乡家庭消费升级的作用效果上看,农村地区体现得更为明显,并且老龄化和全面二孩政策实施带来的人口年龄结构调整,也将扩大城乡家庭的消费差距;从分地区的研究看,中部地区家庭消费升级受到老年抚养比提高带来的促进作用最为突出,而西部地区家庭消费升级受少儿抚养比提高带来的抑制作用最为明显。对此,为应对人口年龄结构变动对扩大消费以及消费升级产生的不同影响,决策部门应在调整产业结构、规划公共资源配置时充分考虑人口年龄结构变动因素,通过先进的金融手段和金融产品降低“老龄化家庭”的预防性储蓄,并出台针对家庭消费的“减负”政策,降低受到计划生育政策影响的家庭的抚养负担,最终通过破除城乡和地区分割的体制障碍、提升落后地区居民福利水平等手段实现人口年龄结构变动、消费升级和经济高质量发展的良性循环。
The upgrading of household consumption based on the change of population age structure is an important microcosmic basis for China’s high-quality economic development.This paper empirically analyzes the impact of the change of population age structure on household consumption upgrading using 5 issues of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data.The results show that the increase of the dependency ratio of the elderly has a significant promoting effect on the improvement of the household consumption structure,while the increase of the child dependency ratio has a significant inhibiting effect on the improvement of the household consumption structure,and the crowding-out effect of child dependency burden on high-level consumption is much larger than the promotion effect of elderly dependency burden on high level consumption.Family economic conditions and health status can positively regulate the consumption upgrading effect of the increase of the elderly dependency ratio and weaken the inhibitory effect of the increase of the child dependency ratio on the consumption upgrading,that is,in families with better economic conditions and better health status,the increase in the elderly dependency ratio has a more obvious promotion effect on household consumption upgrading,while the increase in the child dependency ratio has a less obvious crowding-out effect on household consumption upgrade.The effect of the change of population age structure on the upgrading of household consumption is more obvious in rural areas,and the adjustment of population age structure brought by the aging and comprehensive‘two-child’policy will widen the consumption gap between urban and rural households.From the research of different regions,the promotion effect of the upgrading of household consumption structure brought by the increase of elderly dependency ratio is the most obvious in central China,while the inhibitory effect of the upgrading of household consumption structure brought by the increase of child dependency ratio is the most obvious in western China.In this regard,to cope with the different influences of the change of population age structure on the expansion of consumption and consumption upgrading,the decision-making government departments should take the change of population age structure into full consideration when adjusting the industrial structure and planning the allocation of public resources.These departments should take advantage of advanced financial instruments and financial products to reduce the‘ageing family’precautionary savings,and introduce relevant‘burden reduction’policies to reduce the dependency burden of families affected by the‘one-child’policy.It is expected that eventually a virtuous circle of population age structure change,consumption structure improvement and high-quality economic development can be realized through removing institutional barriers to the division between urban and rural areas and between different regions and improving the welfare of residents in backward areas.
作者
齐红倩
刘岩
QI Hongqian;LIU Yan(Quantitative Research Center of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin 130012,China;Business College,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin 130012,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第12期174-184,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“新常态下促进经济稳定增长的要素配置与产业升级政策研究”(批准号:16JJD790015)
吉林大学哲学社会科学研究重大课题培育项目“人工智能与中国经济社会发展的协同机制研究”(批准号:2019ZDPY06)
国家社科基金青年项目“金融中介视角下‘双支柱’政策有效性检验与协调机制研究”(批准号:20CJY003)。
关键词
人口年龄结构
家庭消费升级
CFPS数据
population age structure
upgrading of household consumption
CFPS data
