摘要
酒店业与经济发展形成良好的互动关系,对粤港澳大湾区创建旅游共同体具有重要意义。本文首先计算出粤港澳大湾区四个中心城市酒店业与经济发展的耦合协调度,再经过Granger检验、E-G协整检验与回归方程分析得到酒店业与经济发展的动态关系。结果显示:四个中心城市酒店业与经济发展耦合协调度从大到小依次为香港、广州、深圳、澳门;香港、澳门、深圳酒店业与经济发展耦合协调度受环境影响较大,广州受环境影响较小;四个中心城市酒店业对经济发展影响都不显著,但香港、澳门、深圳当前酒店业受过去1年的经济发展影响显著,且澳门酒店业受影响程度大于香港、深圳,广州当前酒店业则受过去4年的经济发展影响显著,但其经济发展与酒店业发展并不具有长期均衡关系。因此,四个中心城市要依据耦合协调度做好酒店业规划与布局;引导常住居民增加酒店消费频率,延长经济滞后期对酒店业的影响;做大项目集群中心,增强规模效应对酒店业的正面影响。
It is of great significance for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area to establish a tourism community to form a good interactive relationship between hotel industry and economic development.This paper calculates the coupling coordination degree between Hotel Industry and economy in the four central cities of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area,then obtains the dynamic relationship between hotel industry and economy through Granger test,E-G cointegration test and regression equation analysis.The results show that,the coupling coordination of Hotel Industry and economy in the four central cities is Hong Kong,Guangzhou,Shenzhen and Macao from big to small,the coupling coordination of Hotel Industry and economy in Hong Kong,Macao and Shenzhen is greatly influenced by environment,and Guangzhou is less affected by the environment;the hotel industry in the four central cities has no significant impact on the economy,but the current hotel industry in Hong Kong,Macao and Shenzhen has been significantly affected by the economic development in the past year,and the impact on the hotel industry in Macao is greater than that in Hong Kong and Shenzhen,the hotel industry in Guangzhou has been greatly influenced by the economic development in the past four years,but there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the economic development and the hotel industry.Therefore,it is proposed that the four central cities should do well the hotel industry planning and layout according to the coupling coordination degree,guide the permanent residents to increase the hotel consumption frequency to prolong the influence of the economic lag period on the hotel industry,and expand the project cluster center to enhance the positive influence of scale effect on the hotel industry.
出处
《企业经济》
北大核心
2020年第11期108-115,共8页
Enterprise Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金西部项目“共享经济下康养旅游产业创新发展的机理与路径研究”(项目编号:18XGL008)。
关键词
粤港澳大湾区
酒店业
经济
耦合协调
动态关系
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area
hotel industry
economy
coupling coordination
dynamic relation
