摘要
体育服务业是经济发展水平衡量标志,也是新常态下重要的经济增长点和突破点。基于体育服务业与经济增长相互促进、相互影响的关系,以全国体育服务业增加值和GDP为指标,对两者计算耦合协调度和构建时间序列VAR模型得到体育服务业与经济增长间的动态关系。研究结果显示:(1)体育服务业与经济增长在2015年以前耦合协调关系为失调型,2015年受政策影响,耦合协调度迅速提升,2018年进入优质协调状态;两者在最优滞后1期(上一年)受自身正向影响较大,交互影响较小。(2)体育服务业与经济增长存在协整关系,两者在当前形成了长期稳定关系,经济增长变动1,体育服务业同向变动2.806;当体育服务业短期偏离长期均衡关系时,误差修正项以0.032倍的正向力度把它拉回到长期均衡状态,经济增长偏离长期均衡关系时,误差修正项以0.028倍的反向力度把它拉回到长期均衡状态。(3)体育服务业与经济增长未来受自身影响最大,但随时间推移呈递减趋势,两者交互影响呈递增趋势,体育服务业对经济增长的影响力度大于经济增长对体育服务业的影响力度。依据上述结果,建议:深化体育服务业业态比例政策研制,提升自身产品质量及对往年业务的利用水平,增加体育服务产品供给与消费,加大体育服务业人才培养力度,扩大体育服务企业要素投入,实现体育服务业与经济增长良性互动。
Sports service industry is a measure sign of economic development level,and also an important economic growth point and breakthrough point under the new normal.Based on the relationship of mutual promotion and mutual influence between sports service industry and economic growth,taking the value added of National Sports Service Industry and GDP as indicators,the authors calculate the coupling coordination degree and constructing VAR model of time series.It has been shown that:(1)The coupling coordination relationship between sports service industry and economic growth is maladjusted before 2015,then rises rapidly under the influence of policy in 2015,and enters the high-quality coordination state in 2018;in the first optimal lag period(the previous year),the positive influence of the two factors is larger and the interaction effect is smaller.(2)There is a cointegration relationship between the sports service industry and the economic growth.The economic growth changes by 1,and the sports service industry changes by 2.806 in the same direction,when the economic growth deviates from the long-term equilibrium,the error correction term pulls it back to the long-term equilibrium state with 0.032 times of positive force,and 0.028 times of negative force.(3)The sports service industry and economic growth will be affected most by themselves in the future,but they will decrease gradually with the passage of time,and the interaction between them will increase gradually,the influence of sports service industry on economic growth is greater than that of economic growth on sports service industry.Based on the results,it is suggested that we deepen the research and development of policies on the proportion of business forms in the sports service industry,improve the product quality and the level of business management in previous years,increase the supply and consumption of sports service products,intensify the training of talents in the sports service industry,and expand the input of key elements in sports service enterprises,in order to realize the positive interaction between sports service industry and economic growth.
作者
李国兵
周道平
LI Guobing;ZHOU Daoping(College of Sports Science,Jishou University,Jishou 416000,Hunan,China;Dongguan Polytechnic,Dongguan 523808,Guangdong,China)
出处
《山东体育学院学报》
北大核心
2022年第3期70-81,共12页
Journal of Shandong Sport University
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(编号:18BTY063)。
关键词
体育服务业
经济增长
耦合协调
VAR模型
动态关系
sports service industry
economic growth
coupling coordination
VAR model
dynamic relationship
