摘要
本文利用在福建省农民工流出地的问卷调查数据,采用事件史分析方法,实证检验农民工回乡建房及其影响因素。研究表明,农民工回乡建房的总体发生概率为46.91%。新生代农民工家庭在"生存时间"里回乡建房概率比老一代农民工家庭高,被视为是"逆城市化"的行为或已在我国悄然发生。而建房前家庭外出人口占比越高,农民工回乡建房概率就越低,因此鼓励举家迁移更有利于农民工优化城乡住房配置。城市失业风险越大,农民工回乡建房概率也越大,反映出农村住房是农民工应对风险的保障。而"建材下乡"补贴的建房鼓励政策对农民工回乡建房概率有显著的正向影响。因此,为解决农民工城乡住房矛盾,建议加快推进农民工市民化,同时积极推进就地城镇化;满足农民工基本的建房用地需求,引导农民工依法合理适度建房。
The event history analysis method is used to empirically test migrant workers returning to their homes to build houses and their influencing factors by questionnaire survey data from migrant workers’outflow areas in Fujian Province.This study finds that the overall probability of migrant workers returning to build homes is 46.91%.The probability of the new generation returning to build a house is higher than that of the old generation of migrant workers’families during their"survival time",which is regarded as"anti-urbanization"which might quietly occur in our country.The higher proportion of migrant workers in one family before building,the lower probability of migrant workers returning to build houses,so encouraging family migration is more conducive to optimizing the allocation of urban and rural housing.The greater risk of urban unemployment,the greater probability of migrant workers returning to build houses.It reflects that rural housing is a guarantee for migrant workers to cope with the risks.The"building materials to the countryside"that subsidized house construction encouragement policy has a significant positive impact on the probability of migrant workers returning to their homes.Therefore,in order to resolve the rural-urban housing contradictions,this article proposes to accelerate the civilization of migrant workers and actively promote local urbanization,as well as guide migrant workers to reasonably and appropriately build houses according to law to meet the basic housing land needs.
作者
杨国永
张莉莉
钱鼎炜
曾玉荣
YANG Guoyong;ZHANG Lili;QIAN Dingwei;ZENG Yurong
出处
《农业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第9期48-62,共15页
Journal of Agrotechnical Economics
基金
国家社科基金项目“国有自然资源配置审批制度改革研究”(编号:17BFX085)
福建省社会科学规划项目“空心村改造的协同机制及其实现路径研究”(编号:FJ2019B082)。
关键词
农民工
回乡建房
事件史
影响因素
福建
Migrant workers
Returning to the countryside to build houses
Event history
Influencing factors
Fujian
