摘要
为促进农村一、二、三产业融合发展,构建现代化农业体系,亟需对农业与旅游业的融合协调发展状况进行研究分析。以协同创新理论为基础,论文选取2003-2017年云南省农业与旅游业的相关数据,构建农业与旅游业的指标权重系数与耦合协调度模型,通过GM(1,1)模型预测云南省农旅融合未来10年的发展轨迹,分析云南省农业与旅游业融合发展的耦合协调度和未来发展路径。研究发现:云南省农业与旅游业的发展并不均衡,耦合协调程度总体偏低,整体呈逐渐上升趋势,2003-2009年处于中度失调阶段,2010-2014年处于轻度失调阶段,2015-2017年两产业融合发展水平尚处于调和协调阶段,云南省农旅亟待进一步融合,预测表明2018-2027年两产业耦合协调度处于稳步上升阶段。基于研究结果,提高农旅良性耦合协调发展,需丰富农旅产业内涵,加强人才培养力度,延伸产业链,加强政府引导,健全基础设施建设。
In order to promote the integrated development of primary,secondary and tertiary industries in rural areas and build a modern agricultural system,it is urgent to study and analyze the integrated and coordinated development of agriculture and tourism.Based on the theory of collaborative innovation,this paper selects the relevant data of agriculture and tourism in Yunnan province from 2003 to 2017,constructs the index weight coefficient and coupling coordination degree model of agriculture and tourism,predicts the development track of the integration of agriculture and tourism in Yunnan province in the next 10 years through GM(1,1) model,and analyzes the coupling coordination degree and future development path of the integration of agriculture and tourism in Yunnan province.The study found that the development of agriculture and tourism in Yunnan Province is not balanced,the degree of coupling coordination is generally low,and the overall trend is gradually rising.It is in a moderate imbalance stage from 2003 to 2009,in a mild imbalance stage from 2010 to 2014,and in a harmonious and coordinated stage from 2015 to 2017.The agricultural and tourism in Yunnan Province urgently need further integration.The forecast shows that the degree of coupling coordination between the two industries is in a steadily rising stage from 2018 to 2027.Based on the results of the study,to improve the harmonious development of the benign coupling of agricultural tourism,we need to enrich the connotation of the agricultural tourism industry,strengthen personnel training,extend the industrial chain,strengthen government guidance,and improve infrastructure construction.
作者
王瑞雪
孙海清
朱彩霞
WANG Ruixue;SUN Haiqing;ZHU Caixia(Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming Yunnan 650201,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2020年第8期107-113,共7页
Ecological Economy
关键词
农业
旅游业
产业融合
耦合协调发展
GM(1
1)模型
agriculture
tourism
industrial integration
coupling and coordinated development
GM(1,1)model
