摘要
为探讨林业产业结构与水资源承载力关系,利用2000—2018年贵州省林业产业面板数据,计算贵州省林业产业结构层次系数;利用2000—2018年贵州省水资源相关面板数据,计算水资源承载力指数、水资源生态足迹和水资源生态压力指数,构造VAR模型,并采用脉冲响应和方差分解对它们之间的关系进行分析。结果显示:只存在林业产业结构层次系数对水资源承载力呈单向Granger因果关系和水资源生态压力指数对林业产业结构层次系数呈单向Granger因果关系。贵州省林业产业结构优化能够提升水资源承载力;同时,水资源生态压力的加大也倒逼林业产业结构升级。研究结果表明,合理有效地调整林业产业结构,是水资源可持续利用管理的重要一步。
In order to explore the relationship between the forestry industrial structure and the water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou province,this study selected panal data on the water resource and the forestry industry of Guizhou province from 2000 to 2018,and calculated forestry industrial structure hierarchy coefficient,carrying capacity,ecological footprint and ecological pressure index of water resources to construct the VAR models separately.The relationships between them were analyzed by using impulse response and variance decomposition.The results showed that forestry industrial structure hierarchy coefficient was Granger cause of carrying capacity of water resources;meanwhile,ecological pressure index of water resources was Granger cause of forestry industrial structure hierarchy coefficient.The results suggested optimization of forestry industrial structure could improve water resources carrying capacity,and water resources ecological pressure could force upgrading of forestry industrial structure.Adjustment the forestry industrial structure effectively and reasonably would be an important step to the management of water resources sustainable utilization.
作者
张广奇
ZHANG Guang-qi(College of Forestry,Guizhou University,Guiyang Guizhou 550025,P.R.China;Forest Ecology Research Center of Guizhou University,Guiyang Guizhou 550025,P.R.China)
出处
《西部林业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第2期35-42,56,共9页
Journal of West China Forestry Science
基金
国家自然科学基金委员会-贵州省人民政府喀斯特科学研究中心项目(U1812401)
贵州省科技支撑项目(黔科合支撑[2019]2874号)
贵州省基础研究计划项目(黔科合基础[2020]1Y124)。
关键词
林业产业结构
水资源承载力
VAR模型
脉冲响应
方差分解
forestry industrial structure
water resources carrying capacity
vector auto regression model
impulse response
variance decomposition
