摘要
粮食问题始终是人类历史上关心的问题,合理地预估粮食供需从而指导下一阶段粮食生产具有重要意义.以小麦为研究对象,建立平稳时间序列ARIMA模型,借用SPSS软件分析1979—2018年的粮食供应与需求量的数据,建立模型分别拟合出2019和2020年的小麦供应量和需求量,结果显示供需接近平衡,依此指导下一阶段的粮食生产,提出确保供需平衡和实现粮食安全的政策建议.
Grain problem has always been regarded as one of the most concerned problems in human history.It is of great significance to predict the supply and demand of grain reasonably so as to guide the grain production in the next stage.Wheat was studied as the research object,and subsequently the stationary time series ARIMA model was set up,then SPSS software was employed to analyze the data of grain supply and demand from 1979 to 2018.Last,the model that has been established can be used to fit the wheat supply and demand in 2019 and 2020 respectively.The results showed that supply and demand were close to equilibrium.According to the guidance of the next phase of grain production,policy recommendations were put forward to ensure the balance between supply and demand and achieve grain security.
作者
庞碧玉
冯爱芬
曹振雪
胡启帆
王琰
PANG Biyu;FENG Aifen;CAO Zhenxue;HU Qifan;WANG Yan(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Henan University of Science and Technology,Luoyang 471023,China)
出处
《河南科技学院学报（自然科学版）》
2020年第3期15-21,共7页
Journal of Henan Institute of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金(11471102)
河南省高等教育教学改革研究与实践项目(2019SJGLX262)
河南科技大学大学生研究训练计划项目(SRTP:2019199)。
关键词
ARIMA模型
平稳时间序列
供需平衡
趋势预测
ARIMA model
balancebetween supply and demand
stationary time series
trend prediction
