摘要
城市既是温室气体排放最主要的领域,也是易受到气候变化影响的领域,实现城市的碳减排已成为全球应对气候变化日益重要的举措。中国正在经历全球规模最大、速度最快的城镇化进程,城市的低碳发展对于中国实现应对气候变化目标,推进生态文明建设,实现经济、社会与环境的共赢意义重大。2010年7月以来,中国国家发展和改革委员会先后开展了三批87个低碳省区和低碳城市的试点工作。根据低碳城市试点的进展,本文采用Tapio脱钩模型考察低碳试点城市经济增长与碳排放总量变动之间的关系,并根据脱钩弹性系数的大小将低碳试点城市分为低碳成熟型、低碳成长型、低碳后发型三种。在对城市进行分类的基础上采用STIRPAT模型,考察经济规模、能源结构、产业结构、城镇化水平等因素和碳排放总量和人均碳排放量之间的关系,识别不同驱动因素对试点城市碳排放的影响,依据碳排放驱动因素识别不同类型城市的减排路径。研究结论表明,对于低碳成熟型城市,大力发展可再生能源,加大研发投入是有效的减排途径;对于低碳成长型城市,优化产业结构,提升城镇化质量是减少碳排放的关键;对于低碳后发型城市,实现低碳发展需在促进经济增长的基础上,加快淘汰落后产能,加速产业升级转型。同时,位于东、中、西不同区域的低碳试点城市呈现出不同的碳排放特征,未来在探索差异化、多元化的城市减排路径时,区域性的绿色低碳协同发展有利于实现城市碳减排的目标。
Cities are major contributors to global greenhouse gases and are vulnerable to climate change.At present,China is undergoing an urbanization process at an unprecedented scale and speed,and low-carbon urban development is of great significance to China’s goal of addressing climate change,promoting ecological civilization,and achieving economic,social,and ecological impacts in the meantime.Since July 2010,the National Development and Reform Commission has carried out three batches of pilot low-carbon projects in 82 cities and provinces,and the performance of these low-carbon cities has been evaluated by various research groups.This paper summarized the characteristics of carbon emission and proposed potential developmental paths of its reduction for the low-carbon pilot cities.The Tapio model was used to investigate the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions,then according to the values of the decoupling elasticity coefficient,these cities were classified into three types:low-carbon maturity type,low-carbon growing type,and low-carbon late-developing type.Based on the types of the low-carbon pilot cities,the STIRPAT model was employed to examine the relationships between total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions and economic scale,energy structure,industrial structure,and urbanization level,etc.,in order to identify different impacts from the driving factors on urban carbon emissions,and to further formulate appropriate developmental paths of carbon emission reduction for different types of the low-carbon pilot cities.For cities of the low-carbon maturity type,vigorously developing renewable energy and increasing research and development investment are effective ways to reduce carbon emissions.For low-carbon growing cities,optimizing the industrial structure and improving the quality of urbanization are more effective.For low-carbon late-developing cities,they should further remove the backward production capacity and accelerate the industrial upgrading and transformation on the basis of promoting economic growth.Moreover,it is concluded that different and diversified carbon emission reduction paths require regional green and low-carbon synergetic development.
作者
禹湘
陈楠
李曼琪
YU Xiang;CHEN Nan;LI Man-qi(Research Institute for Ecological-civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028,China;Data Center of Ministry of Culture and Tourism,China Tourism Academy,Beijing 10005,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第7期1-9,共9页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
科学技术部《第四次气候变化国家评估报告》编制工作专项
中国社会科学院哲学社会科学登峰计划气候变化经济学优势学科建设项目成果。
关键词
城市
碳排放
低碳
脱钩
city
carbon emission
low carbon
decoupling
