摘要
随着我国社会经济的快速发展,城市规模呈现迅速而非理性的成长与扩张,在经济转型过程中面临着严峻的城市老化问题,亟待展开老化风险的过程、机理和对策研究。文章基于城市有机更新理论,构建生态学视角下的“点—面—区域—系统”多尺度风险评估体系,理论分析发现,中观层面的面状风险是风险升级和爆发前的最佳治理时期,也是防范和应对未来城市存量建筑集体进入老化期的关键。通过选取山东大学为案例区,基于GIS蜂巢格网进行中观尺度的格局分析,结果表明从格网层面来看山东大学整体老化风险程度偏高,高风险区域主要集中在二环以内的城市核心区,并且由城市中心向外围呈现递减趋势。同时,通过区域分异与空间集聚特点分析发现,城市老化存在集聚、传染与扩散特征。最后,采用地理探测器模型对城市老化因子的非线性效应进行测度,结果显示城市老化风险源于社会、经济和管理等不同层面要素的交互作用,老城区风险主要由区位因素主导,新城区则由社会经济基础决定。
With the fast development of China's economy in recent years,the rapid and irrational growth and expansion of urban scale will cause a large amount of old area problem at the background of economic transformation.It is urgent to study the process,mechanism and countermeasures of urban old area risk.Based on the theory of urban organic renewal,this paper constructs a multi-scale risk assessment system of"point-surface-region-system"from the perspective of ecology.The theoretical analysis shows that the meso-level surface risk is the best period of governance before the risk escalation and outbreak,and it is also the key point to prevent and respond to the future stocks.By selecting Jinan City as a case area,this paper conducts quantitative research based on GIS honeycomb grid.The results show that the overall risk of Jinan is high from the grid level,mainly concentrated in the urban core area within the Second Ring Road,and the risk presents a decreasing trend from the urban center to the outside.At the same time,through the analysis of the characteristics of regional differentiation and spatial agglomeration,it is found that urban old area risk has the characteristics of agglomeration,infection and diffusion.Finally,the geographic detector model is used to analyze the nonlinear cumulative effect of urban old area factors.The results show that the risk originates from the interaction of socialeconomic-management.The risk of old urban areas is mainly dominated by location factors,while the risk of new urban areas is determined by social and economic basis.This paper takes the grid scale as the starting point of research,which is a new perspective to measure urban old area risk and shrinkage.The research results could provide valuable policy suggestions for the spatial management and micro-renewal planning of cities in the stock era.
作者
袁文华
李建春
秦晓楠
YUANWenhua;LI Jianchun;QIN Xiaonan(Business School,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250358,Shandong,China;Collegeof Geography and Environment,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250358,Shandong,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第7期81-92,共12页
Economic Geography
基金
教育部人文社会科学基金项目(20YJC790061)
国家自然科学基金项目(41901169、71704094)
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2019BG001)
中国博士后科学基金项目(2017M622247、2017M622268、2018M630793)。
关键词
城市老化
城市更新
风险评估
兴趣点
格网评价
urban old area risk
urban renewal
risk assessment
interest points
grid evaluation
